A Pick For Packers And Lions On Turkey Day

Packers vs. Lions, 12:30 ET

Every year we get the Lions on Thanksgiving, and frankly, I'm okay with it. I'm not quite sure that there is a franchise I associate with Thanksgiving more than Detroit. Sure, Dallas always plays and plays after this game, but something about Detroit, in Detroit, just resonates with me on this holiday. So, while everyone is getting their plate ready, or making their dinner, I hope we can make a little bit of scratch on this game between the Packers and Lions.

Last week, the Lions were able to pull off an improbable victory and even came within a hair of covering the spread. It was improbable, but more on that in a moment. The Packers meanwhile were pulling off a comeback of their own. The Chargers continue to find new ways to lose games and this one was at the hands of the Packers. The Packers went ahead in the third quarter, but the Chargers were able to capture a lead with very little time to go. The Packers went 75 yards in six plays and scored on the Chargers defense. It was a nice win for the 4-6 Packers. But, let's not get this mixed up. This team is not a very good team. The defense is slightly stronger than I anticipated them coming into the year, but the offense looks worse than I thought it would. Backed with two strong running backs I was kind of envisioning a Cleveland Browns situation when they had Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. That isn't quite how it has played out. Maybe opposing defenses are loading the box and making Jordan Love try to beat them (he doesn't quite seem capable of that yet), or maybe I just underestimated just how much of an impact Aaron Rodgers had on the offense.

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - SEPTEMBER 10: Jordan Love #10 of the Green Bay Packers looks to pass against the Chicago Bears during the second quarter at Soldier Field on September 10, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Last week was one of those games that you looked at and said "If this Lions team is serious and ready to be true winners, they will take care of business against a bad Bears team." Well, with about five minutes to go in the game, the Lions were down 26-14. They scored 17 points in that final stretch and won the game. It was a combination of the offense finally getting something going, and the defense making a big impact late in the game. They got two big stops when they needed them. That's happened all season long for the Lions. They do just enough offensively and their defense gets aggressive and stops the opponent. The biggest thing for the Lions might be that Jared Goff needs to protect the ball. Most of the reason they struggled last week was the result of three interceptions from Goff. He did throw one against the Packers the first time they played. That's kind of normal for him, but I do think the turnover battle will loom large with both teams having little time to prepare for this game.

If I had to trust one of the two quarterbacks to make a game-winning drive, it would be Goff. However, if I had to pick one of them to throw an interception or turn the ball over, I also would pick Goff. Sure, Love threw two picks in their first game, and he has more interceptions on the season than Goff. Something about the way Goff plays makes me very uneasy. That might be part of the reason the Lions rely on the running game so much. In the first game, the Lions ran the ball 43 times, and the Packers just 12. A lot of that was the big deficit the Packers were in so I'm expecting a bit more balance here. I think this total is a bit too high for the game. It should be a bit slower pace and I think the defense will be a bit sharper here against two offenses that might be a little gassed after the effort just a few days ago.

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