3M Open 2024 Betting Card From A Cursed PGA Tour Handicapper

Thankfully, I'm almost done with this embarrassing PGA TOUR betting year. This week's 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota is the penultimate event of the regular season. The PGA TOUR is off next week for the Olympic Men's Golf Competition, then resumes with the Wyndham Championship before the FedExCup Playoffs. 

This is the sixth year of the 3M Open. The previous five winners were Lee Hodges last year (-24), Tony Finau in 2022 (-17), Cameron Champ in 2021 (-15), Michael Thompson in 2020 (-19), and Matthew Wolff (-21) in 2019. Four of those guys were "longshots" and the average winning odds of the five 3M Open champions are +10900, per Ron Klos from Betsperts. 

Last week's 152nd Open Championship went predictably badly for me. Embarrassingly, I bricked the entire tournament, lost -6.25 units (u), and my PGA TOUR 2024 bankroll dropped to -64.81u. To make matters worse, I forgot to save Brooks Koepka as my One-And-Done pick for the 2024 Mayo Cup, so I can pretty much punt on that league. 

My golf betting strategy moving forward into next season will have to change. I.e., I'm scaling back the volume. Until, and if, I start winning again, I'm not betting 10+ wagers on an event. Hopefully, I'll get back to that point by The Masters in 2025. But, instead of trying to be a high-volume golf bettor, I'm going to pick and choose my spots. 

3M Open 2024 Betting Card

Outright Picks 

The odds chosen are the best available at legal U.S. sportsbooks.

Akshay Bhatia (+2000) 

Before Bhatia's missed cut at The Open, he was playing great. He was T22 at the Memorial Tournament ("signature event"), T16 at the U.S. Open, T5 at the Travelers Championship ("signature event"), and T2 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, where he missed a putt on the 72nd hole to force a playoff. 

The 22-year-old got his second PGA TOUR win, the Valero Texas Open, in May at another TPC course in San Antonio. All in all, Bhatia has 10 top 10 finishes on TOUR this season. He has the third-best odds to win the 3M Open but should be second behind 3M Open 2022 champion Tony Finau. 

Akshay Bhatia poses with a pair of boots after winning the 2023 Valero Texas Open. (Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports)

There's a lot of "water danger" at TPC Twin Cities, but it's easy to hit the green-in-regulation (GIR). So, I want to bet good putters and accurate drivers at the 3M Open. Bhatia has hit more fairways than the field in seven straight starts and ranks 27th in Strokes Gained (SG): Putting on TOUR this year. 

BET 1u on Akshay Bhatia (+2000) to profit 20u. 

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Luke Clanton (+2500) 

The Florida State junior is the first amateur with top-10s in back-to-back starts since Billy Joe Patton in the 1957 Masters and the 1958 U.S. Open. Clanton tied for second at the John Deere Classic and tied for 10th at the Rocket Mortgage. 

He was T41 at the U.S. Open and T37 at the ISCO Championship in his other two PGA TOUR starts. It’s a small sample size, but Clanton leads the field in SG: Off-the-Tee (OTT), driving accuracy, and Par 5 scoring and ranks third in SG: Approach (APP) over the last 16 rounds, per Bet The Number. 

The 20-year-old leads the 3M Open field in "performance points" by a wide margin, according to the Official World Golf Rankings. Clanton's 8.1 performance points is 2.1 higher than Tony Finau's, who won the 3M Open in 2022 and is a six-time PGA TOUR winner. Honestly, I don't know what "performance points" mean, but it has to be good. Right? 

BET 1u on Luke Clanton (+2500) to profit 25u. 

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Michael Thorbjornsen (+7000) 

This is a bet on Thorbjornsen's upside. Like rookie sensation Ludvig Åberg, Thorbjornsen earned his full-time PGA TOUR card by finishing first in the PGA TOUR University rankings. He destroys the ball OTT, which is useful because TPC Twin Cities is the ninth-longest course on TOUR. Three of the first five 3M Open champions are bombers. 

I bet Thorbjornsen in his T2 at the John Deere a few weeks back. TPC Deere Run, the host course of the John Deere, is a crossover course to TPC Twin Cities. He gained strokes in the five most important golf stats at the John Deere: +12.1 SG: Tee-to-Green (T2G), +4.5 SG: OTT, +5.1 SG: APP, +2.5 SG: Around-the-Green, and +2.6 SG: Putting, according to Bet The Number. 

Finally, the 3M Open has been the site for breakout performances from young studs. LIV Tour defector Matthew Wolff out-dueled two-time major champion Collin Morikawa and two-time U.S. Open champion Bryson DeChambeau to win the 3M Open in 2019. I could see Clanton or Thorbjornsen breaking their maiden at TPC Twin Cities this week. 

BET 0.5u on Michael Thorbjornsen (+7000) to profit 35u. 

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Finishing Position Bets 

Make placement bets at BetMGM, DraftKings, or FanDuel. BetMGM never applies "dead heat" rules. DraftKings and FanDuel have top-5, -10, and -20 bets that "include ties" for the 3M Open 2024. 

Keith Mitchell Top-20 (+150) at DraftKings: 1u to win 1.5u

Mitchell is fifth in SG: OTT on TOUR this season and 14th in driving distance. According to Fantasy National, he leads the field in SG: APP over the last 36 rounds, the most predictive stat in golf. 

Also, Mitchell's best events this season have been at crossover courses to TPC Twin Cities. This includes a T9 at The American Express, T17 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T9 at the Cognizant Classic (formerly known as "The Honda Classic"), T14 at the Valero Texas Open, and T18 at the John Deere Classic. 

Keith Mitchell hits an approach during the final round of the 3M Open 2023 at TPC Twin Cities at Blaine, Minnesota. (Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports)

Furthermore, Cashmere Keith's only career win was The Honda in 2019, but at least he has legit "win equity". Poor putting has kept the Georgia Bulldog from winning more tournaments. He is 159th in SG: Putting on TOUR in 2024. 

But, Mitchell is +5.1 SG: Putting in three of his four career 3M Opens, so he likes these greens. The 32-year-old finished T5 in last year’s 3M Open and fifth two years ago. If he pairs his elite ball striking with good putting on the TPC Twin Cities’ greens, Mitchell can get his second career win on TOUR this week. 

Daniel Berger Top-20 (+400) at BetMGM: 0.5u to win 2u

I'll take a flyer on Berger, who has no form to speak of. He withdrew from last week's Barracuda Championship in the second round with a knee injury and missed the cut in four of his previous five starts, including three straight. His lone made cut over that span was the U.S. Open, where he was +10.7 SG: T2G and +6.0 SG: APP, according to Bet The Number. 

Daniel Berger hits a shot from the rough during the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. (Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports)

Berger shot -4, -4, and -2 in his last three missed cuts. So, it's not like Berger played that bad, he just couldn't keep up with birdie fests. Granted, the 3M Open is a birdie fest, but TPC Twin Cities' greens are easy to putt on, which is Berger's biggest weakness. Otherwise, Berger is sixth on TOUR in driving accuracy in 2024, 22nd in SG: APP, and 17th in GIR. If he can keep up that ball-striking, I'll gamble on Berger knocking down some putts.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2024 betting record via X all season.