3 NFL Player Props: Chiefs-Ravens 2024 AFC Championship
Player props aren't my forte. So the props below will be smaller than my bet on the Baltimore Ravens to cover the spread against the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2024 AFC Championship Sunday.
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During the regular season, I'm mostly picking sides and sometimes I'll hit a total. Rarely, I'll bet a player prop. But, since there are only three more games remaining in the 2023-24 NFL season, I got ...
3 AFC Title Game Player Props
Ravens WR Odell Beckham Jr. UNDER 21.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Baltimore TE Mark Andrews returning from injury eats into OBJ's already-low target share. Last week, Beckham caught one pass for 12 yards on Ravens' first drive against the Houston Texans and that was it.
Ravens WR Odell Beckham Jr. leaps for a catch against the Los Angeles Rams at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland. (Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports)
OBJ wasn't targeted again in that game. He played 29 percent of Baltimore's offensive snaps in the 2024 AFC divisional round. Finally, Pro Football Focus gives Beckham a 48.6 grade, out of 100, for his matchup vs. Chiefs CB L'Jarius Sneed.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes UNDER 27.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at FanDuel
I almost always go Over the less mobile quarterback's rushing total props in big games. My rationale is the less mobile QB wants to prove that he's also a threat to run the ball. In Chiefs-Ravens Sunday, that QB is Mahomes.
But, the Over for Mahomes 27.5 rushing yards will be one of the most popular player props in the AFC championship. That makes this prop ripe to fade. Mahomes has rushed for more than 27.5 yards in just eight of his 16 career postseason games.
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes directs the offense presnap against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. (Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports)
Baltimore has two elite linebackers — Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen — that can chase down Mahomes and the Ravens blitz at a bottom-10 rate. The best chance for a QB to rip off a big run is the blitz not getting home. That leaves less defenders on the backend for the QB to evade.
This will be Mahomes' fifth career game vs. Baltimore. He has 10 carries for 35 rushing yards combined in his first four games. Plus, Mahomes has rushed for less than 27.5 yards in all four of those contests.
Ravens RB Justice Hill OVER 33.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at FanDuel
Pinnacle Sportsbook is a sharp operation known for taking the biggest sports bets in the world. It has Hill's rushing yards prop set at 34.5 and we are getting a better price at FanDuel.
Kansas City is awful at stopping the run and, by the eye-ball test, Hill has been running hard lately. Hill had 66 yards last week on 13 attempts. He's run for at least 35 yards in four of his six starts this season including the playoffs.
Baltimore Ravens RB Justice Hill rushes against the Houston Texans in the 2024 AFC divisional round game at M&T Bank Stadium. (Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports)
The Ravens are fifth in ESPN's run-blocking win rate and the Chiefs are dead-last in run-stopping win rate. KC's defense allows 4.5 yards per rush (ranked 25th) and Baltimore averages 5.0 yards per carry (3rd). The Chiefs could be so fixated on Lamar Jackson it opens up rushing lanes for Hill.
I'll sprinkle on Hill's first TD scorer prop in Chiefs-Ravens, which is +1600 at FanDuel. Pinnacle is booking +871 for Hill to be the first TD scorer as of Saturday evening. Finally, I just love the odds and think it's worth throwing loose change on. For the record, Hill has only 4 total TDs this season.