3 NBA 'Locks' For Wednesday Include Pacers, Thunder, Clippers
My chances at a 3-0 day in the NBA on Tuesday were hopeless as soon as the Charlotte Hornets vs. Sacramento Kings game tipped off. I took Over 231 in that contest and Hornets-Kings combined to score 95 points in the 1st half.
Otherwise, Tuesday was a good day for me betting hoops. It wasn't exactly the "slump buster" I needed but I can get back above zero with these three ...
NBA Winning Wagers for Wednesday
Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers (+3.5), 7 p.m. ET
This is the second of a Bucks-Pacers back-to-back (B2B). Indiana won the front-end of the B2B, 122-113, in Milwaukee on Monday. The Pacers beat the Bucks despite shooting just 5 of 35 from behind the arc. Indiana upset Milwaukee 140-126 in the 2023 NBA In-Season Tournament semifinals as well.
Furthermore, Indiana has been playing better recently. Over the last two weeks, the Pacers have a +8.3 non-garbage time net rating and the Bucks are +4.2, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). Indiana is +7.3 in spread differential during that stretch and Milwaukee is +0.9.
Indiana Pacers big Myles Turner dunks the ball against the Milwaukee Bucks during the 2023 NBA In-Season Tournament semifinals at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. (Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, the Pacers are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA. They are 1st in both offensive and defensive wide-open 3-point-attempt rate. Indiana is averaging +6.5 more made 3-pointers per game at home than its opponents.
Lastly, Bucks wing Khris Middleton is "questionable" for Wednesday with knee and wrist injuries. Since this is the 1st of a B2B for Milwaukee and Thursday's game is in primetime, Middleton might get an off-night. After a slow start, Middleton looks like the Middleton of old. His shooting splits in December were .509/.424/.950 and he is 2nd in Milwaukee for on/off net rating at +12.0, per CTG.
My prediction: Pacers 124, Bucks 119
Oklahoma City Thunder (-110) at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 p.m. ET
OKC has been "situation proof" this season. The Thunder are 3-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) on no rest with a +21.3 scoring margin. Oklahoma City All-Star PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has played in all three of those games.
Both teams like to get out in transition and play through their backcourts. The Thunder averages +5.4 fastbreak points per game (PPG) whereas the Hawks average -1.5 fastbreak PPG. Plus, SGA is the best player on the floor and Atlanta PG Trae Young is a defensive liability.
Thunder PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander looks to pass with Atlanta Hawks wing Saddiq Bey guarding him at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. (Joshua Gateley/Getty Images)
Also, the Hawks are 7-25 ATS this season, aka woefully underperforming expectations, while the Thunder are on a warpath. OKC is 8-2 SU and ATS in the last 10 games with wins over the Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets, New York Knicks, and Minnesota Timberwolves.
Finally, the Thunder beat the Hawks 126-117 November 6th. Oklahoma City ran Atlanta big Clint Capela off the floor and he's legit unplayable in this matchup. The Thunder have multiple lineups where all five guys can handle the ball and shoot threes. When Capela is off the floor, the Hawks defense is atrocious.
My prediction: Thunder 120, Hawks 112
Los Angeles Clippers (-3.5) at Phoenix Suns, 9 p.m. ET
I'm a sucker for a revenge game angle in the NBA and this is one of those for the Clippers. Phoenix knocked LAC out of the playoffs in the 1st round last year once Kawhi Leonard suffered a season-ending injury during Game 2 of that series.
With that in mind, the Clippers have a clean injury report while the Suns will be without Kevin Durant. Either way, Kawhi is the best player on the floor but KD is Phoenix's leading scorer and averaging 29.9 PPG.
Los Angeles Clippers wing Kawhi Leonard posts up Suns SG Devin Booker during Game 2 of the 2023 Western Conference 1st-Round Playoffs at Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona. (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
That's pretty much the end of my Clippers-Suns handicap. Phoenix doesn't shoot enough 3-pointers to make up for the loss of KD. Both teams operate in the mid-range and attempt difficult shots. However, the Clippers have three or four tough shot-makers vs. just Devin Booker for the Suns.
In fact, when Kawhi, James Harden, and Paul George are on the floor together, the Clippers score 12.1 more points per 100 possessions than their opponents in non-garbage time, according to CTG. That grades in the 95th percentile for all 5-man lineups in the NBA.