3 NBA Best Bets Include A Sneaky-Good Pacers-Suns Game
I robbed Peter (the NBA) to pay Paul (the NFL/PGA Tour) Saturday and I might have to do the same Sunday. Both of my Saturday bets in the NBA won and both of my NFL Divisional Round looks lost. As I've mentioned on my OutKick Bets Podcast, I'm perennially cursed this week in the NFL playoffs.
NBA Sunday Best Bets
Miami Heat (-112) at Orlando Magic, 6 p.m. ET
I'm an early believer of Heat Culture and that culture dominates the Southeast division. Miami is 9-1 straight up (SU) and 6-4 vs. the spread with a +7.1 scoring margin in division games. And aside from rookie SF Jaime Jaquez Jr., the Heat are at full strength.
After tearing it up to start the season, the Magic have sucked since November. Orlando is 8-15 SU over the past two months and 3-7 SU in January. Plus, the Heat have won both meetings this season with the Magic.
Miami Heat SG Tyler Herro celebrates a 3-pointer on the Magic at Amway Center in Orlando, Florida.(James Gilbert/Getty Images)
Miami has the three best players on the floor: PF Bam Adebayo, SF Jimmy Butler, and combo guard Tyler Herro. Finally, the Heat have two strength-on-weakness edges over the Magic in ball security and getting to the charity stripe.
For instance, Orlando is 26th in offensive turnover rate (TOV%) and Miami is 7th in defensive TOV%. The Heat are 5th in offensive FT/FGA rate and the Magic are 23rd in defensive FT/FGA rate.
My prediction: Heat 112, Magic 107
Indiana Pacers (+4.5) at Phoenix Suns, 8 p.m. ET
For legit NBA fans, this is an intriguing matchup. The Pacers are one of the most entertaining teams in the Association. But, none of their players are household names. Phoenix has a Big 3 with future Hall of Famer Kevin Durant and All-Stars Devin Booker and Bradley Beal.
As of the 2:30 p.m. ET NBA injury report, Indy All-Star PG Tyrese Haliburton is "questionable" for this game. Haliburton is a fringe NBA MVP contender and leads the Association in assists per game. The Pacers have the best offensive rating in the NBA because of Haliburton's leadership.
Furthermore, they are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA and get better looks. Indiana is 6th in 3-pointers per game and allow the fewest on defense. According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), the Pacers are 3rd in shot quality while the Suns are 28th.
Pacers PG Tyrese Haliburton dishes the ball in an NBA game vs. the Atlanta Hawks at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. (Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
Also, trading for All-Star Pascal Siakam will improve Indiana's defense and give it another shot-creator who can take pressure off of Haliburton. Siakam can help defend KD and Pacers big Myles Turner is one of the best defensive bigs in the NBA.
Obviously, if Haliburton is ruled out, Indiana's spread gets larger. However, I'm willing to gamble on him playing. The Pacers have gone from +5 on the opener down to +4.5. Even if Haliburton misses and I get a bad number, Indiana has enough 3-point shooters and ball-movement to steal this game.
My prediction: Suns 125, Pacers 124
Portland Trail Blazers (+11) at Los Angeles Lakers, 10:30 p.m. ET
The Lakers are just playing bad right now and I don't trust them to get up for this game when they face their rival, the LA Clippers. LAL won back-to-back games vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks earlier this week. Then inexplicably lost by 18 to the Brooklyn Nets on Friday.
Granted, Portland is awful. But, if you squint hard at their roster, the Blazers at least have players you want. Heck, Portland backup PG Malcolm Brogdon is the reigning NBA Sixth Man of the Year and C Deandre Ayton went 1st in the 2018 draft. Blazers SF Jerami Grant could be a contributor on a title-contending team.
With that in mind, all of the Trail Blazers are "showcasing" their talents. The Lakers could be one of the teams looking to add a Brogdon or Grant at the trade deadline. Maybe if Brogdon and Grant ball out in LA Sunday, LeBron James will rescue them from Portland.
Los Angeles Lakers SF LeBron James gets a layup vs. the Trail Blazers in an NBA In-Season Tournament game at Moda Center in Portland, Oregon. (Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
Brogdon should get a lot of run Sunday because the Blazers have a banged-up backcourt. Portland SG Anfernee Simons and rookie SG Scoot Henderson are "questionable" and SG Shaedon Sharpe is out. This is a good thing for the Trail Blazers. Brogdon has a +9.1 on/off non-garbage net rating, per CTG.
Portland could be a thorn in LA's side Sunday because the Blazers hustle. They are 1st in defensive turnover rate and 2nd in second-chance points per game. If the Lakers are careless with the ball or lazy on the defensive glass, the Blazers could keep this game close.
That said, I've unsuccessfully faded the Lakers a lot recently. So perhaps fading me while fading the Lakers isn't a bad strategy.