2026 WM Phoenix Open Best Bets To Sweat (Hopefully) On Super Bowl LX Sunday

Take my word for it: Super Bowl Sunday is that much better if you're betting on the WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. Before I fell in love with golf betting a few years ago, I felt like a kid who couldn't fall asleep Christmas Eve night, waiting in anticipation all day for the Super Bowl to kick off. Now, my gambling on Super Bowl Sunday begins as soon as I wake up. 

I know THE PLAYERS Championship is golf’s fifth major, but the WM is the coolest non-major on the PGA TOUR. Aka, The People's Open, the WM is the most attended event on TOUR with the wildest crowd. My friends who've been to the Phoenix Open compare it to a frat party at a golf course: Booze, babes, and rec drugs are in play at TPC Scottsdale. 

Although it's not a BYOB event, I'm bringing a six-pack to the WM. That's right, I'm taking on World No. 1, and two-time Phoenix Open champion (2023-24), Scottie Scheffler, with six golfers. If Scottie wins this week, I might start betting the "Winner Without Scheffler" markets. That said, I can't blame you for betting Scottie at +220 and calling it a day. 

Nonetheless, my 2026 WM betting strategy is to risk enough to profit 20 units (u) for my outright picks and place a half-unit wager on their "Top-20 with ties" markets. As of last week's Farmers Insurance Open, my 2026 PGA TOUR bankroll is -4.57u. Without further ado, here is my six-pack for the WM, along with a One-And-Done pick for the week. 

2026 WM Phoenix Open Betting Card

The following odds are based on my previous bets on the golfers listed below. Subject to change. 

• Brooks Koepka (+4579) at Kalshi and Top-20 with ties (+200) at BetMGM.
• Jordan Spieth (+5500) and Top-20 with ties (+175), both at DraftKings.
• Daniel Berger (+7000) at Bet365 and Top-20 with ties (+240) at DraftKings.
• Kurt Kitayama (+7000) at Caesars Sportsbook and Top-20 with ties (+240) at BetMGM.
• Matt McCarty (+7200) and Top-20 with ties (+200), both at DraftKings.
• Nicolai Højgaard (+7500) at FanDuel and Top-20 with ties (+281) at Kalshi.

Brooks Koepka

I saw enough from Brooks in his return to the PGA TOUR last week. Albeit Koepka finished T54 at the Farmers Insurance Open, he was 25th in driving distance, 20th in Strokes Gained (SG): Approach (APP), and third in SG: Around-the-Green. 

Unfortunately for Brooks, out of the 74 guys who made the cut at the Farmers last week, he was dead last in putting, losing more than seven strokes on the greens. However, Torrey Pines South has some of the toughest greens on TOUR, whereas TPC Scottsdale has some of the easiest. 

More importantly, Koepka has won the WM twice in 2015 and 2021, and finished T3 in his last start in Phoenix in 2022 before joining the LIV TOUR. Look, maybe I’m early, but eventually, Brooks will win again on the PGA TOUR, and TPC Scottsdale is one of the most predictive courses on the schedule. 

The Phoenix Open crowd is exactly what Koepka said he missed about playing on TOUR, and he will be the most popular golfer in the field this week. Finally, the five-time major winner is one of the few guys who won’t be nervous about going toe-to-toe with Scottie Scheffler if they are in the final group Sunday.

Jordan Spieth

Spieth has six top-10 finishes in nine starts in Phoenix, including T4 last year, T6 two years ago, and T6 in 2023. There are several "risk/reward" holes at TPC Scottsdale that you can attack in different ways, which allows Spieth to be creative. In fact, Tom Weiskopf designed TPC Scottsdale, and Jordan is third for total strokes gained in this field at Weiskopf courses. 

People think of Spieth as a short-game specialist, but the driver has been the best club in his bag over the past couple of years. Also, Spieth knows this is a make-or-break season for him as a top-tier golfer. Jordan said he wants to qualify for the big "signature events" instead of getting sponsor exemptions to play in them. 

The three-time major champion opened his season with a T24 at the 2026 Sony Open, gaining strokes with every club in his bag. Given his motivation and how important course history matters here, Spieth should be in the mix to win the WM, if Scottie Scheffler doesn’t run away with it, of course.

Daniel Berger

Despite being an inconsistent putter for most of his career, Berger has gained strokes on the greens in eight of his 10 starts at TPC Scottsdale. Last year, he finished T2 in the WM, while picking up strokes OTT, APP, ARG, and Putting. On top of last year’s T2, Berger has T10, T7, T11, and T9 finishes in Phoenix. 

He ranks third in my model at Betsperts Golf due to his elite ball-striking and precise irons, and he performs well at similar venues to TPC Scottsdale and desert-style courses. Moreover, Berger made the cut in his first two starts this season with a T6 at the Sony Open and a T56 at the American Express. 

The bottom line: Berger is a four-time PGA TOUR champion and has more "win equity" than a lot of the guys with shorter odds.

Kurt Kitayama 

The UNLV alum is second in my model at Betsperts Golf behind Scheffler. TPC Scottsdale is a driver-heavy course, and Kitayama is eighth in this field for SG: Off-the-Tee (OTT) over the last year. Plus, he is fifth in SG: APP and fifth in birdie-or-better rate over the last 50 rounds. 

Kitayama has gained strokes ball-striking (OTT and APP) in all three starts in Phoenix. Most of the approach shots at TPC Scottsdale are within 150-200 yards, and he is 11th in this field in proximity to the hole from that range over the last 50 rounds. 

Putting is by far his weakest skill, but TPC Scottsdale is an easy course to gain strokes on the greens, and several bad putters have won the Phoenix Open. Kitayama has the ball-striking to be another bad putter to win here.

Matt McCarty 

Simply put, McCarty is playing much better than his odds indicate. He has finished in the top 20 in his last six starts dating back to the final tournament of the 2025 PGA TOUR regular season, the Wyndham Championship. This includes a T2 at the American Express and a T18 at the Farmers Insurance Open. 

Matt McCarty of the United States hits a tee shot on hole 18 during the 2025 WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. (Photo Credit: Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images)

Although both are in California, they are two completely different events, highlighting McCarty’s versatility. He missed the cut in his first Phoenix Open last season, but maybe McCarty was just nervous because he was playing in his hometown, Scottsdale. 

Either way, McCarty is at least comfortable playing a desert course, and this is a great price for him. He is extremely accurate with his driver and a great putter, which works for any course.

Nicolai Højgaard 

Over the last five years, the driver has been pulled for 85.8% of the holes at TPC Scottsdale, and Højgaard is one of the best drivers in the world. He was third in driving distance on TOUR last season and has gained strokes OTT in 10 of his last 11 PGA TOUR starts with shot-link data. 

Furthermore, there is a group of stats in the "going-for-the-green" category that I like for this event because of all the "risk/reward" holes at TPC Scottsdale, and the average winning score in the Phoenix Open is usually in the high teens. "Going-for-the-green" is when a golfer tries to hit the green from the tee on a Par 4 or on their second shot on a Par 5. 

Well, Højgaard was fifth in this field for birdie-or-better rate when going for the green on TOUR last season. Last year, Nicolai was T7 in the field for SG: APP and 15th in SG: Putting at the WM, but lost more than two strokes with OTT. If he can hit his irons and putt like he did last year, and get back to his typical driving, Højgaard can have a good week in Phoenix.

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WM Phoenix Open ‘One-And-Done Pick’: Jordan Spieth 

• Sony Open: Maverick McNealy, T24 ($72,475)
• The American Express: Harry Hall, T24 ($81,420)
• Farmers Insurance Open: Adam Scott, T30 ($56,280)

Spieth's course history is too good to pass up, and he gained strokes across the board at the Sony Open a few weeks ago. My two other considerations for this week are Brooks and McCarty. But I might want to use Koepka at a "signature event" or a major. The 2026 U.S. Open is at Shinnecock Hills, where Brooks won the 2018 U.S. Open. McCarty missed the cut at the WM last year, and this is his second year on TOUR, so I'm not sure if I want to use him at all this season. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2026 betting record via X throughout the entire season.