Snake Pit Survival: Best Bets, 'One-And-Done' Pick For 2026 Valspar Championship

The Florida Swing concludes this week with the 2026 Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club's Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor. Before the schedule shifts to the Lone Star State, PGA TOUR fans get one more look at a demanding course that usually rewards sharp iron play, patience, and a steady short game more than pure star power.

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As far as nicknames go, Innisbrook's three-hole closing stretch, called the Snake Pit, is pretty bad a**. The Copperhead course doesn't produce as much drama as TPC Sawgrass, host of THE PLAYERS Championship last week, but nine of the last 11 Valspar winners have been decided by one stroke or in a playoff. So, this thing ain't over till it's over. 

Speaking of THE PLAYERS, last week could've gone worse. I lost 1.54 units (u), and I would've broken about even if Sahith Theegala didn't puke all over himself Sunday and shoot a final-round 77 (+5). Moving on, I'm allocating 2.1u on my outrights and another 2u on placement bets for the Valspar. Let's get into my best bets and One-And-Done pick at Innisbrook. 

Valspar Championship 2026 Betting Card 

The following odds are based on my previous bets on the golfers listed below. Subject to change. 

• Justin Thomas +2342 and Top-10 with Ties +280 (0.5u), both via Kalshi
• Ryo Hisatsune +3900 via DraftKings and Top-20 with Ties +181 via Kalshi (0.5u)
• Wyndham Clark +6000 via BetMGM and Top-20 with Ties +252 via Kalshi (0.38u)
• Max Homa +8000 via Caesars Sportsbook and Top-20 with Ties +266 via Kalshi (0.38u)
• David Ford +12500 via DraftKings and Top-20 with Ties +398 via Kalshi (0.25u)

Justin Thomas

I snuck in a bet on JT at +12500 for last week’s PLAYERS Championship at 10 p.m. PT this past Wednesday and didn’t regret it. Thomas shot 68’s in the first two rounds of the PLAYERS and gave himself a chance to win after three rounds. This was after an ugly missed the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he shot a +14 in his 2026 debut two weeks ago. 

However, JT only started playing in the Arnold Palmer when it became a "signature event" in 2023, whereas he is the 2021 PLAYERS champion and TPC Sawgrass is one of his "happy places". Well, the Valspar is a normal regular-season tournament, with a weaker field, and Innisbrook is another happy place for Thomas. 

Justin Thomas lines up his putt during the 2022 Valspar Championship at the Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club in Palm Harbor, Florida. (Photo Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports)

He’s never won here, but JT has four top-10 finishes in eight Valspar Championships, including a runner-up last season, a T10 in 2023, and a T3 in 2022. Thomas gained strokes ball-striking in all eight career Valspar Championships and has gained strokes chipping in seven straight. 

The two-time PGA champion led the field in putting last week at TPC Sawgrass, which has the same greens as Innisbrook. The bottom line: If JT is 90-95% back, he should be the favorite or second-betting favorite at the Valspar, behind Xander Schauffele. Maybe.

Ryo Hisatsune

I ran two models for the Valspar, and Ryo is first in my model at Bet The Number and third in my model at Betsperts Golf. Hisatsune leads this field in total strokes gained (SG): Tee-to-Green (T2G) this season, which blends driving, iron-play, and chipping. 

Ryo was on my PLAYERS card last week and made me money by cashing a top-20 ticket after he finished T13, so I have no problem running it back with him at Innisbrook. Hisatsune was T33 at the 2024 Valspar and T4 last year, while gaining strokes across the board (driving, approach, chipping, and putting). 

Also, Ryo was T2 at the 2026 Farmers Insurance Open, T10 at the WM Phoenix Open, and T8 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He is only 23 years old and has already won the 2023 Open de France. Aka, Hisatsune plays well at Innisbrook, enters the Valspar in good form, and is a proven winner. That, combined with his odds, makes Ryo a good investment for this event.

Wyndham Clark

Iron-play and chipping are the two biggest separators at Innisbrook, and Wyndham has gained strokes on approach and around-the-green in four straight starts. This includes two "signature events," Pebble Beach and the Genesis Invitational, and THE PLAYERS with stronger fields. 

Wyndham Clark hits his tee shot during the 2026 WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. (Photo Credit: Anna Carrington-Imagn Images)

Also, there are four Par-3s at Innisbrook and Clark ranks ninth on TOUR this season in birdie-or-better rate (BoB%) on Par-3s. While he isn’t playing great this year, Wyndham has made the weekend in all five tournaments with a cut in which he has played. 

The reigning Valspar champion, Viktor Hovland, couldn’t say the same last season, when he missed the cut in his three starts before winning at Innisbrook. Ultimately, at 60-to-1, it’s worth gambling that Clark, the 2023 U.S. Open champion, can bust his slump at the Valspar, the same way Hovland did last year.

Max Homa

The Clark-Hovland comparison I just made applies to Homa, too. Max is a six-time PGA TOUR champion and a two-time American Ryder Cupper. His game has fallen off a cliff over the last two years, and Homa hasn’t won since the 2023 Farmers, but he’s starting to show flashes of his old self. 

Max was T13 at the Cognizant Classic two starts ago and a respectable T32 at THE PLAYERS last week. For what it’s worth, Homa finished T6 in his last visit to Innisbrook, back in 2021. He missed the cut in his other two appearances, though, in 2015 and 2019. 

Regardless, Homa playing in the Valspar again this year suggests that he is grinding to get back in the winner’s circle, which I like. Max is one of "my guys" because I cashed an outright on him at the 2023 Farmers. He is one of the more likable guys on TOUR, and golf is better when Homa is playing well. 

I have golf-based reasons for betting him, too. At his best, Max is an accurate driver, dialed in with his irons, and a great putter. Homa is seventh on TOUR this season in Par-5 BoB%. Innisbrook has three Par-3s that are 200-225 yards and he is fourth this year in proximity to the hole on approach shots from that range.

David Ford 

Even though they both ejected in the fourth round of THE PLAYERS last week, the first two PGA TOUR University valedictorians, Ludvig Åberg in 2023 and Michael Thorbjornsen in 2024, played in the final group. They both have the talent to win a major. Ludvig has already played well in a few majors, as does Ford, who is the third PGA TOUR valedictorian. 

Furthermore, Ford’s game is perfect for Innisbrook. He is long and straight off-the-tee and ranks seventh in SG: Approach on TOUR this season. Ford’s short-game has been a disaster so far this year. Yet, he gained strokes chipping and putting at THE PLAYERS last week, which is encouraging because TPC Sawgrass is a much tougher course on and around the greens than Innisbrook. 

He probably isn’t ready to win on TOUR yet. But, Ford is talented enough at 23 years old to win; his odds fit into my budget for the Valspar Championship and his top-20 feels like a "plus-EV" bet.

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Valspar Championship ‘One-And-Done Pick’: Ryo Hisatsune 

Season Standings: 3,719th with $1,372,750

• Sony Open: Maverick McNealy, T24
• The American Express: Harry Hall, T24
• Farmers Insurance Open: Adam Scott, T30
• WM Phoenix Open: Jordan Spieth, missed cut
• AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Justin Rose, T37
• The Genesis Invitational: Cameron Young, T7
• The Cognizant Classic: Nicolai Højgaard, T6
• Arnold Palmer Invitational: Scottie Scheffler, T24
• THE PLAYERS Championship: Hideki Matsuyama, T27

Even though I'm fairly convinced JT wins this event, I'd rather save him for the RBC Heritage or Travelers Championship, which are "signature events" with much bigger payouts. Thomas is the reigning RBC Heritage champion, and he's played well at the Travelers over the last three seasons. I'm hoping Ryo won't have high ownership this week because there are big names in this field that people will feel like they have to use, such as Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth, and Sahith Theegala. 

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Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2026 betting record via X throughout the entire season.