5 Bets I Love For Thursday's Round Of 64 Slate In 2026 NCAA Tournament

In celebration of the first day of the Round of 64 in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, I'm responsibly gambling irresponsibly. Meaning, I'm not wagering life-changing money, but I probably have too many bets on my card Thursday. I guess we'll see. But, if I go 5-0 on the picks below, you'll say I should've taken a position in more games. 

LISTEN: OutKick Bets Podcast's 2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions, First-Round Best Bets Ft. David Troy

Also, it just so happens that I have more action in Thursday's Round of 64 because I like more games than Friday's slate, so I'll be dialing it back regardless. That said, here are my five favorite bets for the first full day of the Big Dance. 

NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Bet Slip: Thursday 

These bets were available at the time of writing and are subject to change. 

• #9 TCU Horned Frogs +2.5 (-110), down to pick 'em, vs. #8 Ohio State Buckeyes via DraftKings, risking 1.1 units (u).
• #13 Troy Trojans +12.5 (-104), down to +11, vs. #4 Nebraska Cornhuskers via FanDuel, risking 1.1u.
• OVER 149.5 (-110), up to 151.5, in #12 McNeese Cowboys vs. #5 Vanderbilt Commodores via Caesars Sportsbook, risking 1.1u.
• #11 VCU Rams +2.5 (-110), down to pick 'em, vs. #6 North Carolina Tar Heels via FanDuel, risking 1.1u.
• #7 Saint Mary's Gaels -3 (-110), up to -4, vs. #10 Texas A&M Aggies via Caesars Sportsbook, risking 1.1u.

#9 TCU (+2.5) vs. #8 Ohio State, 12:15 p.m. ET

My analysis of the #9 TCU Horned Frogs vs. #8 Ohio State Buckeyes in the East Regional of the 2026 NCAA Tournament for OutKick's newsletter Wednesday. 

#13 Troy Trojans (+12.5) vs. #4 Nebraska Cornhuskers, 12:30 p.m. ET 

This is Troy's second straight NCAA Tournament appearance. As a 14-seed, the Trojans lost to Kentucky 76-57 last year. Granted, they did lose four starters from that team and didn't have starting C Theo Seng for the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. 

But Seng is expected to return for this game, and Troy winning the Sun Belt tourney despite losing starters from last year's team, without Seng, suggests good coaching. So, while this specific team doesn't have NCAA Tournament experience, the coach does, and I can work with that. Especially when I'm getting +12.5. 

Furthermore, the Trojans have a ginger-brother backcourt, Cooper and Cobi Campbell, who can shoot their asses off: Cooper hits 38.6% of his threes, and Cobi hits 40.6%. I'd say having brothers in your starting backcourt is a good shortcut to building continuity quickly.

More importantly, the Trojans have a significantly better shot profile. They get more dunks and layups, shoot fewer long-mid-range jumpers, the least efficient shot in basketball, and allow fewer 3-point attempts, according to Bart Torvk. 

Lastly, Nebraska is too much of a "finesse team." Per Ken Pom, the Cornhuskers are 314th nationally and 350th in offensive FT/FGA, and 11th in 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr). Hence, they don't get easy buckets, and if their 3-pointers aren't falling, there is no way the Cornhuskers are covering as a double-digit favorite.

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OVER 149.5 in McNeese vs. Vanderbilt, 3:15 p.m. ET 

Pace and officiating are the two most important factors for betting totals. With that in mind, McNeese is 66th in adjusted offensive tempo and 325th in defensive FT/FGA rate, according to Ken Pom. Vanderbilt is 53rd in tempo and 312th in defensive FT/FGA rate. 

The Cowboys will have to speed up the pace to overcome their offensive limitations. And why wouldn't Vandy go along? The Commodores are seventh nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 35th in effective field goal shooting, which blends 2- and 3-point shooting. They should be thinking, "F*** it. The more possessions, the better." 

There should be a lot of second-chance opportunities in this game. McNeese is 49th in the country in offensive rebounding rate and 339th defensively, while Vanderbilt is 231st in defensive rebounding rate. Since they are a poor shooting team, the Cowboys will attack the paint, looking to get to the foul line and crash the glass for putbacks. 

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VCU (+2.5) vs. North Carolina, 6:50 p.m. ET

My analysis of the #11 VCU Rams vs. #6 North Carolina Tar Heels in the South Regional of the 2026 NCAA Tournament for OutKick's newsletter Thursday. 

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Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's (-3), 7:35 p.m. ET 

Even though the Gaels usually suck in the tourney, I'm fading the Aggies, who limped into the Big Dance. They are 4-6 straight up (0-4 SU) and 3-7 against the spread in the last 10 games, and got crushed by the Oklahoma Sooners in the SEC Tournament, and OU didn't make the NCAA Tournament. 

Texas A&M is 0-4 SU vs. top-25 teams, and its best regular-season win was over an unimpressive Kentucky team that I'm fading Friday. The Aggies are 322nd nationally on the "Paper Tiger Factor," which is a Haslametrics.com stat that essentially measures teams' performance against tough and easy competition. 

Saint Mary's Gaels guard Joshua Dent gets in the paint against the Gonzaga Bulldogs at McCarthey Athletic Center. (Photo Credit: James Snook-Imagn Images)

Finally, I like this SMC team, on paper, and this matchup specifically. Saint Mary's is the best free-throw shooting team in the country, which is important for covering as a favorite. The Gaels have a strength-on-weakness edge on the glass. They are 15th nationally in offensive rebounding rate and Texas A&M is 284th in defensive rebounding rate. 

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Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my 2025-26 college basketball best bets here.