'Three Best Bet Weave' For The Round Of 32 Sunday In NCAA Tournament 2026

Hopefully, Sunday in the Round of 32 brings some madness because the 2026 NCAA Tournament has been kind of boring so far. Favorites are rolling, and the only Cinderella team is one of the best colleges in the world, 11-seed Texas. In fact, the NCAA tourney looks like the NBA, with both teams chucking threes, and eventually the game gets out of hand.

If I've said it once, I've said it a million times: This is where gambling (responsibly) comes in. Regardless of the quality, as long as I'm winning money, I don't care what the basketball looks like. With that in mind, here are my three favorite looks for Sunday, March 22, in the NCAA Tournament. 

Best Bets for Sunday's Round of 32 Slate 

These bets were available at the time of writing and are subject to change. 

• #3 Virginia Cavaliers moneyline (-102), up to -130, vs. #6 Tennessee Volunteers via BetMGM, risking 1.02 units (u).
• OVER 154.5 (-108), up to 156, in #9 Utah State Aggies vs. #1 Arizona Wildcats via DraftKings, risking 1.08u.
• #2 UConn Huskies -4.5 (-110), up to -5.5, vs. #7 UCLA Bruins via DraftKings, risking 1.1u.

Midwest: Tennessee vs. Virginia (-102), 6:10 p.m. ET 

Virginia should win the all-important 3-point battle. Per Ken Pom, the Cavaliers are 37th in offensive 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr) and 125th in defensive 3PAr, while the Volunteers are 332nd in offensive 3PAr and 330th defensively. Also, the Cavs have a better "Paper Tiger Factor" and "Away-from-Home" efficiency, according to Haslametrics.com. 

Tennessee's "Paper Tiger Factor" has been consistent throughout head coach Rick Barnes’s stint in Knoxville. The Vols haven’t made it past the Sweet 16 in five of their seven NCAA Tournament appearances under Barnes, and they are 8-12 against the spread in the tourney since he took over the program in 2016. 

Virginia Cavaliers forward Thijs de Ridder drives to the paint vs. the Wright State Raiders in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. (Photo credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images) 

While UT leads the country in offensive rebounding rate, these teams have nearly the same average height and Virginia is a solid defensive rebounding team. Plus, UVA is fifth nationally in defensive effective field goal rate, which blends 2- and 3-point shooting, and 256th in defensive turnover rate. 

This suggests that the Cavaliers don’t gamble on defense, stay in front of their defenders, and pack the paint. Given their low 3PAr, the Volunteers won't be able to take Virginia's defense out of its comfort zone. 

Prediction: Virginia 70, Tennessee 65

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West: OVER 154.5 in Utah State vs. Arizona, 7:50 p.m. ET

The Wildcats and their opponents have combined for 156+ points in 21 of their 35 games this season, including their 92-58 win over LIU in the first round. Utah State has had 156+ points scored in 20 of its 35 games after beating Villanova 86-76 in the Round of 64. 

Plus, both teams play fast: Arizona ranks 47th nationally in tempo and the Aggies are 81st, per Ken Pom. There could be a bunch of easy points, especially for UoA. Both are good offensive rebounding teams and get to the foul line often. Yet, Utah State is 259th in defensive rebounding rate and 268th in defensive FT/FGA rate. 

Generally, blowouts are where Overs go to die because teams tend to mail it in down the stretch when the game is out of hand. I say this because the Wildcats are a -12.5 favorite. Well, since this is the Big Dance, Utah State will presumably play to the final whistle regardless of the score. This could mean fouling down 10 at the end of the game when it otherwise wouldn't. 

Lastly, the Aggies move the ball well and have a strong shot profile. Their dunk and layup rates are above-average, they have a low volume of long-mid-range jumpers, and an above-average 3PAr, according to Bart Torvik. 

Prediction: Arizona 89, Utah State 72

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East: UCLA vs. UConn (-4.5), 8:45 p.m. ET 

UConn is the best program in college basketball under head coach Dan Hurley. The Huskies had their 14-game NCAA tourney covering streak snapped in their 82-71 win over Furman Friday. But covering 14 consecutive NCAA tourney games is insane, and Connecticut's lone non-cover was still an 11-point win. 

More importantly, UConn has a significantly better profile and a strength-on-weakness edge in rebounding. The Huskies get more dunks and layups, shoot more threes and take fewer long-mid-range jumpers, which is the least efficient shot in basketball, per Bart Torvik. 

Connecticut is 23rd nationally in offensive rebounding rate and UCLA is 302nd in defensive rebounding, according to Ken Pom. Huskies C Tarris Reed had 32 points and 27 boards vs. Furman, including 11 offensive rebounds. Simply put, between style and personnel, the Bruins don’t have anyone to stop Reed, and they’re going to get killed on the glass. 

Ultimately, UConn can win several types of games, while UCLA needs to hit threes and the Huskies to have an off-shooting night to advance. That said, I’d rather lay the points with Connecticut since teams that win usually cover the spread, too.

Prediction: UConn 78, UCLA 67

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