2026 NCAA Tournament: High-Upside Future Bets For Each Region

While I'm not a "college basketball guy," nor a futures bettor or someone who fills out multiple brackets, I have to go on the record with some NCAA Tournament bets. Most of my work for the tourney will be giving out my best bets daily. But I downed a Celsius, got in the lab, stayed up until 3 a.m., and built an NCAA tourney portfolio of futures to sweat. 

Learn More About The Ultimate College Hoops Experience

The results: I found a blue blood to fade, a way to invest in my top-rated team in the tourney at a plus-money payout, a possible Cinderella team, and a perennial powerhouse that's being undervalued by the market. Without further ado, here are my favorite futures for all four regions of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. 

Duke Blue Devils, "No" to make the Final Four (+105) at Kalshi 

This market is specific to Kalshi. DraftKings and FanDuel only allow you to bet "Yes," whereas Kalshi allows you to short teams. The Blue Devils definitely have the profile of a title contender and entered the NCAA tourney as the No. 1 overall seed. Duke's only two losses this season are by a combined four points, and forward Cameron Boozer is the second-best player in college basketball. 

But, I'm fading the Blue Devils because they lost starting PG Caleb Foster to a season-ending injury, and starting center Patrick Ngongba has missed the last four games, and their region is insane. The East is the "Blue Blood" region, and has four national title-winning head coaches: St. John's Rick Pitino, UConn's Dan Hurley, Kansas's Bill Self, and Michigan State's Tom Izzo. 

Plus, all five of those teams have legit frontcourts that could hold their own vs. Boozer. This includes St. John's C Zuby Ejiofor (Big East Player of the Year), UConn forward Tarris Reed (All-Big East first-team), Kansas forward Flory Bidunga (Big XII Defensive Player of the Year), and Michigan State senior bigs, Carson Cooper and Jaxon Kohler. 

Foster led Duke in assists per game and 3-point shooting percentage. Ngongba, who does the dirty work for Boozer, might not be healthy for the tourney. Ultimately, the Blue Devils aren't deep enough to survive a bad game by Boozer, and there are too many good head coaches in this region with elite bigs, who can force Boozer into an off-game. 

Houston Cougars to win the South Regional (+250) at DraftKings

Since Cinderella teams are rarer nowadays in the NIL/Transfer Portal era, I'm crossing off every team in this region besides Houston, 1-seed Florida, and 5-seed Vanderbilt. I don't believe in 3-seed Illinois and 4-seed Nebraska because they are sh*tty Big Ten schools. So, the Cougars have an easier path to the Final Four because Florida and Vandy are on the same side of the bracket. 

Even though Vanderbilt crushed Florida in the SEC Tournament, I have the Gators beating the Commodores and advancing to the Elite Eight to play Houston. It's a rematch of last year's national championship that Florida won 65-63. However, despite going from a 1-seed last year to a 2-seed this year, the Cougars are a better team this season, while the Gators aren't as good. 

Houston freshman PG Kingston Flemings is the best player in the South region and Ken Pom's third-best player in the country. Florida senior transfer PG Xaivian Lee is a significant downgrade from former PG Walter Clayton Jr., who went to the NBA after being named a consensus All-American and winning the 2025 NCAA Final Four's Most Outstanding Player. 

That said, the Gators are the toughest possible matchup the Cougars could get in the Elite Eight. Florida has the same frontcourt that won the national title last season, and Houston's bigs are the weakest part of the team. I'd love for the Cougars to play anyone else, including Vandy, in the regional final. Simply put, Vanderbilt just doesn't have enough size to beat Houston. 

Arizona Wildcats, "Yes" to Men's Championship Game Qualifiers (+189) at Kalshi

UoA is my No. 1 power-rated team entering the Big Dance and I don't think much of the other teams in the West Regional. The Wildcats have size, shooting, and future NBA players. They rebound, get out in transition, and running off turnovers and rebounds is the smartest way to play offense, keep teams off the foul line, and force opponents to take bad shots.  

Arkansas, a 4-seed, is the second-best team in that region because PG Darius Acuff Jr. could be the best guard in the tourney. Otherwise, the 2-seed Purdue consistently pisses down its leg under head coach Matt Painter. I'm not a believer in 3-seed Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are small, their best player is hurt, and they are easy to defend because they don't shoot enough 3-pointers. 

If Arizona wins the West, it'll have to play the winner of the Midwest Regional, which will be Michigan. This is where my handicapping becomes noob-ish, frankly. Perhaps it's smarter to take the Wildcats to win the West (-120) because they have to win six games to make the national championship. 

But, I can sell my position at Kalshi if UoA meets Michigan in the Final Four, or try to "middle" and bet the Wolverines if they are underdogs to the Wildcats. Either way, they are the best team in the country, and I'd bet Arizona to win the title, but I want my school, St. John's, to win the championship and don't want to root for one of my bets to lose.  

Santa Clara Broncos, "Yes" to Round of 16 Qualifiers (+945) and Round of 8 Qualifiers (+3021), both at Kalshi 

For the record, I'm splitting a half-unit between these two markets. Remember, like all wagers, this is price-dependent. I say that because there are a lot of holes in Santa Clara's resume. But I like the roster and team profile, and want to fade that side of the Midwest Regional. 

The Broncos have more assists than turnovers and three rotation players shooting 40+% from 3-point range and make three more 3-pointers per game than their opponents. They crash the offensive glass and create second-chance opportunities and have a 7-foot-1 (Bukky Oboye) who rebounds his a** off and protects the rim. 

Santa Clara's first-round opponent, 7-seed Kentucky, has been living off its brand name. College basketball analyst Erik Haslam has a metric called the "Paper Tiger Factor" that essentially gauges how teams play against good teams. The Wildcats rank 362nd out of 365 D1 schools in that stat. I.e., they suck vs. quality competition. 

Barring a crazy upset, the Broncos will play 2-seed Iowa State in the second round. ISU is 317th in "Paper Tiger Factor" and 261st in "Away-from-Home" efficiency. Then, Santa Clara will most likely face 6-seed Tennessee or 3-seed Virginia in the Sweet 16. Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes is known for early NCAA tourney exits and Virginia is the worst 3-seed in the bracket. 

_____________________________

Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my 2025-26 college basketball best bets here.