Smart Money Is Fading Phoenix Suns: Take Portland Trail Blazers To Cover Tuesday

The real NBA season begins Tuesday (the playoffs, when guys allegedly care) with a 2026 Play-In Tournament doubleheader. Out West, the #7 Phoenix Suns host the #8 Portland Trail Blazers for a 10 p.m. ET tip-off at the Mortgage Matchup Center. Phoenix is a -2.5 to -3.5 favorite, depending on where you look. 

I know casual-to-non-NBA fans are confused about the play-in tourney. But, to simplify it here, whoever wins clinches the 7-seed and faces the #2 San Antonio Spurs in the first round of the 2026 Western Conference Playoffs. The loser plays the winner of the #9 Los Angeles Clippers and #10 Golden State Warriors in a do-or-die game for the final playoff spot. 

Phoenix won and covered two of the three regular-season meetings with Portland. Post-All-Star break, the Suns were 13-14 with a -0.4 net rating and the Trail Blazers were 15-11 with a +3.4 net rating, per CleaningTheGlass.com. Portland starting forward Jerami Grant and Phoenix backup SG Grayson Allen are questionable to play in this game. 

Now that we've gotten all the boring details out of the way, let's figure out how to make money on the Trail Blazers-Suns Thursday. 

Best Bet: Portland Trail Blazers +3 (-110) 

The bottom line is: I like Portland's bigs more; the Trail Blazers are 3rd in defensive rating since the NBA All-Star Game, they have a better shot profile, and Phoenix doesn't have a legit table-setting point guard in its starting 5. 

Portland C Donovan Clingan is my kind of big, and backup C Robert Williams can hold down the fort while Clingan is resting. Clingan is a rim-protector who averages the most offensive rebounds per game in the NBA, sets screens, shoots 3-pointers, and doesn't need plays run for him to stay engaged. Williams is cut from a similar cloth but doesn't shoot 3s. 

Furthermore, the Trail Blazers have a strength-on-weakness edge on the glass. They lead the NBA in second-chance points per game (PPG), and the Suns rank 27th in defensive rebounding rate and 22nd in second-chance PPG allowed. Rebounding becomes more important in the postseason when there are fewer possessions. 

The Portland Trail Blazers play the Phoenix Suns Tuesday in the 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament with the winner clinching a postseason berth. (Photo credit: Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images)

Also, Portland PG Jrue Holiday is a two-time NBA champion, while Phoenix has two shooting guards in its starting backcourt. I LOVE Devin Booker's game, but he isn't a natural point guard, and Suns SG Jalen Green doesn't create looks for teammates. 

This probably explains why the Trail Blazers get better looks. They are second in offensive shot location and 13th on defense, compared to the Suns, who are 24th in offensive shot location and 19th defensively, per CleaningTheGlass.com. Plus, between Clingan, Jrue, and forward Toumani Camara, Portland has elite defenders on all three levels. 

Lastly, I'm following the line movement headed towards Portland. Phoenix opened as -4 favorites at Pinnacle Sportsbook (a market-making shop) and is down to -3 at the time of writing, even though more betting action is on the Suns, per Pregame.com and BetMGM's John Ewing. 

Prediction: Trail Blazers 109, Suns 107

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