March Madness Heats Up: 3 Best Bets for Conference Tournament Games Friday

As Selection Sunday inches a little closer, March Madness is in full swing. Every top-10 team in the country plays Friday in their quarterfinal and semifinal conference tournament games. Thursday was my first terrible day betting college basketball in a while, when I went 1-3. I got back into the lab Friday morning, and here are the games I'm betting to win my money back. 

College Basketball Betting Card For Friday The 13th

These bets were available at the time of writing and are subject to change. 

• #25 Tennessee Volunteers moneyline (-110), up to -2.5, vs. the #22 Vanderbilt Commodores via FanDuel, risking 1.1 units (u).
• UCLA Bruins +5.5 (-110), down to +4.5, vs. the #8 Michigan State Spartans via Caesars Sportsbook, risking 1.1u.
• Miami Hurricanes +3.5 (-112), down to +2, vs. the #10 Virginia Cavaliers via DraftKings, risking 1.12u.

#25 Tennessee (-110) vs. #22 Vanderbilt, 3:30 p.m. ET 

I'm using the zig-zag theory for my Tennessee bet. This is typically used in the NBA playoffs when you bet the team that just lost in the next game of the series because it's tough to beat the same team in back-to-back games. Well, it works here because the Volunteers just lost to the Commodores at home 86-82 this past Saturday. 

UT had a much better assist-to-turnover ratio (15/11 to Vanderbilt's 10/14) and won the rebound battle 40-31. The Volunteers were just 25.0% from 3-point land (6-for-24), which likely improves toward the mean. Granted, it's usually easier to shoot at home, but Tennessee benefits from playing on this neutral floor Thursday, while Vandy is playing its first SEC tourney game Friday. 

The Tennessee Volunteers play the Vanderbilt Commodores in the 2026 SEC Tournament Friday at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville. (Photo credit: Randy Sartin-Imagn Images)

Also, I'm following the sharp line movement that's flipped the Volunteers from slight underdogs to slight favorites. The market isn't falling for recency bias, and college basketball gurus, Erik Haslam and Bart Torvik, rank Tennessee higher in schedule-adjusted net efficiency. 

Prediction: Tennessee 75, Vanderbilt 69 

_____________________________

Miami (+3.5) at #10 Virginia, 7 p.m. ET

Even though the Cavaliers are the 10th-ranked team in the country and The U is unranked, there isn't a lot separating these teams. In fact, Ken Pom ranks Miami 27th in schedule-adjusted net efficiency, and Virginia is 19th. The Hurricanes covered as +7.5 road underdogs in an 86-83 loss to the Cavaliers during the regular season. 

Miami won the "battle of possessions" (turnovers and rebounds), getting 11 more field goal attempts, but Virginia shot the lights out. Since the Cavs are 273rd in "Away-from-Home" efficiency, per Haslametrics.com, I'm expecting them to shoot worse on a neutral floor Friday. And the 'Canes have a better shot profile because they get more dunks and layups. 

The Miami Hurricanes meet the Virginia Cavaliers Friday at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina in the 2026 ACC Tournament. (Photo credit: Emily Faith Morgan-Imagn Images)

Finally, Miami is 22nd nationally in "Consistency," according to Haslametrics.com, compared to Virginia, which is 207th, and The U is entering with better form. The Hurricanes are 7-3 against the spread (ATS) over their last 10 games, whereas Virginia is 3-7 ATS. 

Prediction: Miami 76, Virginia 74

_____________________________

UCLA (+5.5) vs. Michigan State, 9 p.m. ET 

There might not be enough possessions for Michigan State to win by margin. Both defenses force opponents to play at a slow pace. The Spartans are 189th nationally in average tempo, and UCLA is 252nd in average tempo, per Ken Pom. Furthermore, UCLA should be able to control the pace of this game because it has better offensive and defensive turnover rates. 

Plus, the Bruins have a better 3-point shooting percentage on both ends of the floor. He might not be as well-known as Spartans PG Jeremy Fears, but Bruins transfer PG Donovan Dent is a great floor general surrounded by sharpshooters. The two most important things in tournament basketball are 3-point shooting and the "battle for possessions". 

The UCLA Bruins face the Michigan State Spartans Friday in the 2026 Big Ten Tournament at the United Center in Chicago. (Photo credit: Nick King/Lansing State Journal-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

Lastly, the line is ticking toward UCLA even though Michigan State is the most popular ranked team on the betting board at BetMGM, according to John Ewing. The Spartans beat the brakes off the Bruins 82-59 at home in the regular season, and the public thinks "MSU -5.5 is a good number". 

Prediction: Michigan State 70, UCLA 68

_____________________________

Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my 2025-26 college basketball best bets here.