Join The Dark Side And Bet Scottie Scheffler At The 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Arnie Palmer Alert 🚨🚨🚨! One of my favorite events on the PGA TOUR tees off this week with the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida. Every year, I buy iced tea and lemonade and watch the movie The Other Guys just to see Brett Gelman's character say "Arnie Palmer Alert" to get amped up for this tournament. 

After skipping last week, the top golfers on TOUR make their Florida Swing debuts in hopes of winning the coveted red cardigan and $4 million. The API is one of three "signature events" on TOUR with a cut. The field features World No. 1 and two-time Arnold Palmer winner Scottie Scheffler, World No. 2 and 2018 API champion Rory McIlroy, and defending champion Russell Henley. 

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One of the toughest things about betting golf nowadays is dodging Scottie, aka the Boogeyman. At this point, you almost need to get lucky for Scheffler not to win a tournament. He's that good. But this week, I'm joining the dark side and building my 2026 API betting card around Scheffler. 

Fortunately, I'm doing this with money to spend after hitting Nico Echavarria (+5900) at last week's Cognizant Classic, thanks to Shane Lowry getting caught in the Bear Trap. Entering the Arnold Palmer, my 2026 PGA TOUR bankroll is +7.25 units (u). That said, here is who I'm betting and my One-And-Done pick for Bay Hill (Spoiler alert: It's Scottie). 

Arnold Palmer Invitational 2026 Betting Card 

The following odds are based on my previous bets on the golfers listed below. Subject to change. 

• Scottie Scheffler +350 via FanDuel (3u)
• Robert MacIntyre "Winner without McIlroy & Scheffler" +3000 via FanDuel (0.5u) and Top-10 with ties +330 via Kalshi (0.6u)
• Pierceson Coody "Winner without Scheffler" +4500 via DraftKings (0.44u) and Top-10 with ties +455 via Kalshi (0.38u)
• Keegan Bradley "Winner without McIlroy & Scheffler" +5000 via FanDuel (0.4u) and Top-10 with ties +455 via Kalshi (0.38u)

Scottie Scheffler 

I mean, what can I say? Scottie is the best golfer in the world. I understand if you don't want to bet him because the odds are too short for a golf tournament. However, I have a good return on investment when backing a World No. 1. This will be the fourth time I've bet Scheffler, with wins in two of the first three: 2024 Paris Summer Olympics and the 2025 Memorial Tournament.

My analysis for Scottie Scheffler winning the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational in OutKick's Newsletter. 

Robert MacIntyre 

According to Betsperts Golf, MacIntyre has gained strokes on the field with his driver and putter in all four starts this season. He is seventh on TOUR in Scrambling this year, which is important because Par is a good score at Bay Hill. Also, I have a hunch that the sportsbooks and golf betting space underrate Bobby Mac. 

Since this past summer, the Scotsman finished second in the U.S. Open, T7 at the 153rd Open Championship, second at the BMW Championship vs. Scottie, a win at the 2025 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, T8 at the DP World (European) Tour Championship with a loaded field, and T4 at the 2026 Sony Open. 

Essentially, MacIntyre plays well all over the world, at any course, and he doesn’t have a weak club in the bag. Bobby Mac is an above-average driver, great with his long irons, has good touch around the greens, and can putt his way to victory. 

Pierceson Coody 

I ran four models on two websites, fitted with a bunch of sh*t, including course history, comp course history, driving stats, approach play, Par 5 scoring, etc., and Coody was no lower than 13th on all four models. When you compare that to his betting odds (he is 29th on the betting board), it's easy to pull the trigger on Pierceson. 

Pierceson Coody hits his approach shot during the final round of the 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. (Photo Credit: Kyle Terada-Imagn Images)

Per DataGolf.com, he is ninth in this field for total strokes gained (SG) over his last five starts. Coody has finished T18 or better in five of his six starts this season, and T48 in the other at Pebble Beach. His best finish was a T2 at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines, a course comparable to Bay Hill. They are both long and difficult, and Coody is an elite ball-striker. 

He is just 26 years old and has the talent to win a big-boy event. Coody was the top amateur in the world when he played college golf at Texas, where he was a three-time All-American and a three-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour. Lastly, Pierceson finished T14 at the 2023 Arnold Palmer on a sponsored exemption, gaining nearly five strokes chipping and putting. 

Keegan Bradley 

The 2025 American Ryder Cup captain gained strokes in total ball-striking in nine of his 11 career starts at Bay Hill and five straight putting. Keegan led the field in SG: Approach at last year’s Arnold Palmer and ranked fifth in driving accuracy. He shot a tournament-best -8 in the final round to finish T5 at Bay Hill last year. 

Bradley has one of the highest ball flights on TOUR, which helps him here because this place has firm greens. Bay Hill is one of the few stops on TOUR where Par is a good score, and Keegan ranks second in this field in SG: Around-the-Green. Hence, even if his ball-striking is off for a round, Bradley can "get up and down" with his chipping. 

Lastly, Keegan has a win in four straight years, including two Travelers Championships, a "signature event," and the 2024 BMW Championship (second round of the FedExCup Playoffs), and he has longer odds than a lot of guys with less "win equity".

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Arnold Palmer Invitational ‘One-And-Done Pick’: Scottie Scheffler 

• Sony Open: Maverick McNealy, T24 ($72,475)
• The American Express: Harry Hall, T24 ($81,420)
• Farmers Insurance Open: Adam Scott, T30 ($56,280)
• WM Phoenix Open: Jordan Spieth, missed cut ($0)
• AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Justin Rose, T37, ($78,375)
• The Genesis Invitational: Cameron Young, T7, ($603,200)
• The Cognizant Classic: Nicolai Højgaard, T6, ($324,000)

Scottie Scheffler kisses the championship trophy after winning the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge. (Photo Credit: Reinhold Matay-Imagn Images)

This is a "game theory" play. I'm counting on Scottie's usage being lower than normal this week because he snapped his streak of top-10 finishes last week, and people are saving him for THE PLAYERS Championship, the Masters, and the U.S. Open. The first-place money is a little higher for those events, but not by much; the Arnold Palmer winner still walks away with $4 million. 

Plus, those fields are bigger and stronger. There are just 72 golfers in the field this week, and only from the PGA TOUR. Whereas the Masters and U.S. Open fields will have LIV and DP World Tour players, and THE PLAYERS has a field of 150+ golfers. Ultimately, you kind of need to win with Scheffler to make money in these leagues, and he is more of a lock at Bay Hill than anywhere else on TOUR. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2026 betting record via X throughout the entire season.