Edmonton Oilers Can't Beat Florida Panthers In First Two 2025 Stanley Cup Finals Games, Right?
'Due' is a word that doesn't belong in this Panthers-Oilers series.
If Game 1 is any indication, the rematch of last year's Stanley Cup Finals between the Florida Panthers (0-1) and Edmonton Oilers (1-0) that went seven games could be a classic. Edmonton beat Florida 4-3 in Game 1 when Oilers forward Leon Draisaitl scored his second goal with 31 seconds remaining in the first overtime period.
Despite going to overtime, the Oilers outclassed the Panthers on Wednesday. MoneyPuck.com said that Edmonton had a 61.5% chance of winning Game 1 based on its "Deserve To Win O'Meter". The Oilers had 14 more shots on goal and seven more scoring chances, including three more "high-danger" scoring chances, according to NaturalStatTrick.com.
The Panthers have been road warriors this postseason. They have already set the record for most road goals scored in the Stanley Cup playoffs (51 and counting) and have gone 8-3 in those contests. However, Edmonton is 7-1 on its home ice in these playoffs. Something has to give, which is what we are here to discuss.
Projected Goalies for Game 2
Panthers G Sergei Bobrovsky: 12-6 in the playoffs with a .912 save percentage and a 2.17 goals against average (GAA).
Oilers G Stuart Skinner: 7-4 in the playoffs with a .904 save percentage and a 2.49 GAA.
Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers Game 2 Stanley Cup Finals Odds
Based on Florida holding a 2-1 after the first period and beating Edmonton in the 2024 Stanley Cup Finals, the public will likely back the Panthers to tie this series before heading home for Game 3. In fact, nearly 70% of the betting action is on Florida at the time of writing, according to Pregame.com.
So, not only is there a "fade the public" angle for Game 2, but there's also some "gambler's fallacy" in these betting splits, too. This is when bettors think something is "due," a word that doesn't belong in sports betting.
Remember how streaky the 2024 Stanley Cup Finals were? Florida won the first three games of the series, then Edmonton rallied back to force a Game 7, which the Panthers won. Weren't both teams "due" during their three-game losing skids?
That said, I'll take the cheap price on the Oilers. Their average moneyline this postseason has been -140, and they have a +2.1 scoring margin in those games. Draisaitl and Oilers' three-time Hart Trophy winner Connor McDavid are the two best skaters in this series and are out for vengeance after losing last year's Stanley Cup Finals to this team.
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