THE 2025 PLAYERS Championship 'Horses For The Course', 'One-And-Done' Pick

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As "golf's fifth major", THE PLAYERS Championship 2025 at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, has the biggest payout on the PGA TOUR with the winner collecting $4.5 million. After becoming the first golfer ever to win back-to-back PLAYERS, World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler looks to three-peat at TPC Sawgrass. 

Between the field and the volatility of TPC Sawgrass, THE PLAYERS is annually one of the most exciting events on TOUR. There are water and sand traps all over this course, which is why previous PLAYERS champions miss the cut here often. For more intel on THE 2025 PLAYERS, event history, and TPC Sawgrass, check out the X posts below. 

LISTEN: Best Bets for THE PLAYERS Championship 2025 ft. Mark Harris

Last week, I dropped 2.15 units (u) at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and my PGA TOUR 2025 bankroll is -25.23u. So, as you can see, I need to hit an outright. Because of this, I'm risking 2.6u on seven golfers to profit 20u except for Nicolai Højgaard, who will earn me 22u by winning THE 2025 PLAYERS. Let's get into how I'm losing money at TPC Sawgrass. 

THE 2025 PLAYERS Championship Betting Card 

‘Horses for the Course’ 

  • Bet 0.71u on Xander Schauffele (+2800) at BetMGM.
  • Bet 0.61u on Hideki Matsuyama (+3300) at FanDuel.
  • Bet 0.4u on Sepp Straka (+5000) at DraftKings
  • Bet 0.33u on Keegan Bradley (+6000) at DraftKings.
  • Bet 0.27u on Jordan Spieth (+7500) at Bet365.
  • Bet 0.18u on Nick Taylor (+11000) at FanDuel.
  • Bet 0.1u on Nicolai Højgaard (+22000) at FanDuel.

Xander Schauffele (+2800)

Before winning the 2024 PGA Championship and 152nd Open Championship, Xander was considered one of the biggest chokers in golf. Schauffele fanned those flames at THE PLAYERS last year, which he should’ve, could’ve won. Xander was tied with Brian Harman for the 54-hole lead before carding a final round 70 and losing to Scottie Scheffler by one stroke.

Xander Schauffele hits out of the pine straw in THE 2024 PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Photo credit: Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union-USA TODAY NETWORK)

Xander Schauffele hits out of the pine straw in THE 2024 PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Photo credit: Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union-USA TODAY NETWORK)

Look, I'm trying to "catch a falling knife". If Schauffele didn't miss time with a rib injury after The Sentry, he'd have the second-best odds at THE 2025 PLAYERS. Xander finished T40 in his first start after the injury at last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he started to show form in the final round, shooting a 69 (-3). 

Schauffele's ball-striking was solid but his short-game struggled. This suggests he was dealing with rust more than discomfort from his previous injury. Ultimately, I'm "buying low" on Schauffele because, if Xander plays well at TPC Sawgrass this week, this will be the best odds we get for him all season. 

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Hideki Matsuyama (+3300)

At the time, Matsuyama shot a TPC Sawgrass record 63 (-9) in the lost 2020 PLAYERS that got canceled during the first round. Hideki missed the cut the next year, which happens to everyone because of all the volatility of TPC Sawgrass, but finished fifth two years ago and T6 last season. 

Despite not missing a cut in his seven starts this year, Matsuyama is 166th in driving accuracy on TOUR. Yet, TPC Sawgrass doesn’t have the distance of the recent courses Hideki has played at, so it’ll be easier for him to focus on keeping his ball dry. 

Otherwise, Matsuyama’s game is in a great place. He won The Sentry 2025, the first "signature event" of this season. ‘Deki is sixth in total Strokes Gained (SG) this year, 12th in Par 5 scoring, 15th in SG: Around-The-Green (ARG), and 17th in SG: Approach (APP). 

Matsuyama hasn’t been in contention since The Sentry. Nonetheless, Hideki has drifted to a price that I cannot pass up. The 2021 Masters champion is seventh on the odds board when he should be fifth, ahead of Justin Thomas (+2200) and Tommy Fleetwood (+3000), who is making his second start after missing a couple of months with a rib injury. 

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Sepp Straka (+5000)

The Austrian is second in the 2025 FedExCup standings with a win at The American Express (AmEx), T15 at The Sentry, T7 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am ("signature event"), 15th at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T11 at the Cognizant Classic, and T5 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational ("signature event"). 

You have to be a precise ball-striker to win at TPC Sawgrass. Well, Straka is 11th in SG: APP and 11th in driving accuracy this season. One of his other two career wins on TOUR was The Honda Classic in 2022 at PGA National in Florida, now known as the "Cognizant Classic". 

PGA National has the same grass type as TPC Sawgrass and similar weather factors since they are both in Florida. Straka lost in a playoff to Will Zalatoris at the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind, another course with Bermudagrass Greens and water all over the place.

Scottie won THE PLAYERS last year with a -20, so you might have to "go low" to win this season. Straka won the AmEx with a -25 score and his other career win was the 2023 John Deere Classic, where he shot a -21. Finally, Straka is a 2023 European Ryder Cupper and a 2024 Paris Olympian, so he’s used to playing under pressure. 

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Keegan Bradley (+6000)

Recent PLAYERS winners have come to TPC Sawgrass in good form, and low-key, the 2025 American Ryder Cup captain is playing great right now. Bradley has four top-15 finishes this season, including a T5 at last week's Arnold Palmer. He's gained strokes with his driver in six starts this year and with his irons in five. 

Finally, he won the 2024 BMW Championship (second round of the FedExCup Playoffs) and the vibes are great with Keegan. He is a fellow St. John's University graduate from the class of 2008. Our Johnnies are big favorites to win the 2025 Big East Tournament and a legit national title contender. 

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Jordan Spieth (+7500)

You can always make a pro-Spieth argument since he's won everywhere in the world. He started the season a little late following offseason wrist surgery. Spieth has played four times this season with mixed results: T69 at Pebble Beach, T4 in Phoenix, a missed cut at The Genesis, and T9 at the Cognizant. 

However, I bet Jordan at Pebble Beach and the Cognizant, so he's given me a weekend "sweat" in both, which is all you can ask for when at these odds. Can he win? Of course, it's Spieth. He's a three-time major champion. Plus, Jordan is driving the ball well, his short-game is always nasty, and I've seen enough from him to take shot at this price. 

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Nick Taylor (+11000)

Taylor is a dog. The Canadian has won in three consecutive seasons, all in spectacular/dramatic ways: 2023 RBC Canadian Open, 2024 Phoenix Open, and the 2025 Sony Open. Nick was tied with Xander for second after 36 holes at THE 2024 PLAYERS. But, Taylor ejected with a third-round 76 and shot a 70 in the final round. 

He was T26 at last year's PLAYERS while gaining 4.4 strokes with his irons and 4.5 strokes on the greens. A T16 in 2016 was his best finish in THE PLAYERS. Nonetheless, Taylor is a longshot worth betting on because he has been red-hot with his irons this year and has legit "win equity". He is fourth in SG: APP on TOUR this season, the most predictive stat in golf. 

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Nicolai Højgaard (+22000)

I’m bullish on this 23-year-old who I bet at the Mexico Open and Cognizant Classic. Højgaard was on the 2023 European Ryder Cup team and won three times on the DP World Tour, including the 2023 DP World Tour Championship, out-dueling Rory, Fleetwood, Jon Rahm, and Viktor Hovland (when he was still good at golf). 

Nicolai is first in Greens-in-Regulation rate on the PGA TOUR, first in scoring average, third in SG: APP, and 22nd in SG: Putting in three starts this season: T36 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, eighth in Mexico, and T18 at the Cognizant. 

He is 118th in driving accuracy, which is scary at a place like TPC Sawgrass with water on 17 holes. But, Højgaard is one of the most powerful ball-strikers in the world and doesn’t have to worry about covering the distance after laying up off-the-tee (OTT) to avoid the water or navigate the doglegs at TPC Sawgrass.

Again, Højgaard is only 23 years old, and I swear he’ll win a PGA TOUR event this season. Perhaps it’ll be a smaller event and not a big-boy tournament. However, at this number, Nicolai fits into my budget for THE 2025 PLAYERS. 

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THE PLAYERS Championship 2025 ‘One-And-Done Pick’: Sepp Straka 

Me and my girlfriend's entry into the "Race for the Mayo Cup 2025" got a huge boost by correctly taking Russell Henley to win the Arnold Palmer. Now we are 519th and would double our money if the contest ended today. Truth be told, that was all my lady. I wanted nothing to do with Henley and didn't even bet on him to win. 

Because she hit Henley, my old ball and chain gets to pick again this week. She went with Straka based on "vibes" and the eyeball test. I'm all about it since the data support a bet on Sepp, and he's playing like a top-five golfer in the world right now. Straka is a bit contrarian, but so was Henley. 

Previous Picks
  • Sony Open: Austin Eckroat ($0)
  • The American Express: Sam Burns ($57,640)
  • Farmers Insurance Open: Rico Hoey ($0)
  • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Jason Day ($368,500)
  • Waste Management Phoenix Open: Andrew Novak ($0)
  • The Genesis Invitational: Collin Morikawa ($270,714)
  • Mexico Open: Nicolai Højgaard ($218,800)
  • Cognizant Classic: Davis Thompson ($0)
  • Arnold Palmer Invitational: Russell Henley ($4,000,000)🥇

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X all season.