Best Bets For Pacers-Cavaliers, Nuggets-Thunder Game 5s In 2025 NBA Playoffs

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The days of doubleheaders in the 2025 NBA Playoffs are winding down. We are still in the conference semifinals, but once we reach the conference finals, it's only one NBA game a day. I know most OutKick readers are thinking, "Good, the NBA sucks anyway". 

Nevertheless, post-basketball, sports are awful until football starts and there are fewer things to bet on. Even the most anti-NBA person agrees. Say what you will; I'll enjoy the NBA postseason while it's here and try to profit from it. 

Picks for Tuesday in the 2025 NBA Playoffs

The odds are the best available at the time of writing. 

  • OVER 230 (-110), up to 231, in Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers via DraftKings, risking 1.1 units (u).
  • Denver Nuggets +10.5 (-110), down to +9, at Oklahoma City Thunder via Caesars Sportsbook, risking 1.1u.

OVER 230 in Pacers at Cavaliers 

Usually, you want to bet Unders in the playoff series from Game 5 on. However, 101.0 is the average pace per game in this series and these are elite 3-point shooting teams. They have a combined 12-5 Over/Under record in these playoffs. The Over has cashed in three of the four games this series and there were 230 points in the lone Under. 

Furthermore, even though the last two games have been blowouts, these teams combined for 230 and 238 points. This is crazy because blowouts are where Overs die with one team trying to dribble out the clock and the other giving up. Well, between fouling late and these teams' styles, a close game should help the scoring late. 

Cleveland Cavaliers SG Donovan Mitchell jamming it vs. the Indiana Pacers in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals of the 2025 NBA Playoffs. (Photo credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images)

Cleveland Cavaliers SG Donovan Mitchell jamming it vs. the Indiana Pacers in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals of the 2025 NBA Playoffs. (Photo credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images)

Lastly, Cavs All-Star SG Donovan Mitchell left Game 4 early with an injury but participated in shootaround for Game 5 Tuesday morning. But, since Cleveland's season is on the line, Mitchell will play through his injury and will score 30+ points. After all, he is averaging a series-best 34.0 points per game (PPG). Donovan doing his thing will give his teammates open looks.  

Prediction: Cavaliers 122, Pacers 115

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Nuggets (+10.5) at Thunder 

After correctly betting the Over 226 in Denver's 121-119 Game 1 victory, I've whiffed on my two bets for Games 2-3. Hence, maybe I'm not the one to listen to about Game 5, or maybe you should just fade me. Either way, the Nuggets are 3-1 against the spread in this series and three games have been down to the wire. 

Also, this series is tied despite Nikola Jokić shooting just 39.1% from the field and 21.4% from behind the arc. Granted, Oklahoma City's defense is the best in the NBA and has been insane in this series. But, eventually, Jokić will tear OKC apart, as he did in the series opener. So, if these games are nail-biters with The Joker playing poorly, what happens when he plays well?

The market has adjusted the totals but not the sides. Game 1's total was 229.5 and the Thunder were -10.5 home favorites, while 221 is Game 5's total with OKC laying -10.5, again. Since the sportsbooks ("market") project fewer points to be scored, Oklahoma City's spread should be lower, too. Perhaps this is "sucker logic," but taking +10.5 with the best player in the world seems smart. 

Prediction: Thunder 113, Nuggets 108 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.