Forget NFC South Odds, Atlanta Falcons' Win Total Is Better Bet In 2025

The Atlanta Falcons had their standard mediocre season in 2024, finishing 8–9 and missing the playoffs for the seventh straight year. Close-game heartbreaks piled up, with multiple losses in overtime that left the Falcons better than their record suggested, but still a team in need of stability at quarterback and defensive improvement heading into 2025.

LISTEN: OutKick Bets Podcast's 2025 NFC Over/Under Team Win Totals

Nobody can agree on Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. Pro Football Focus graded him as a top-10 quarterback in his three starts last year, while FTN had him in the bottom 10. So, I'm breaking the tie. I liked his college tape at Indiana and Washington, and Penix can be at least a league-average starter, or a steady game manager for an offense with more talent than people realize.

Atlanta’s Offense Already Has Playmakers in Place

Even with Penix being a rookie and QB Kirk Cousins being a disaster, Atlanta finished 14th in offensive DVOA last season. Falcons WR Drake London has established himself as a true No. 1 receiver, RB Bijan Robinson is already one of the NFL’s most dangerous dual-threat backs, and the offensive line features three former first-round picks.

The problem was everything else. Atlanta ranked 29th in both defensive and special teams DVOA, which is almost impossibly bad. Defenses are inconsistent from year to year. Plus, the Falcons invested in that side of the ball by drafting two first-round pass rushers this spring, while still boasting playmakers like S Jessie Bates III and LB Kaden Ellis.

Regression To the Mean Should Lift Atlanta's Defense and Special Teams

Atlanta's opponents made their field goals at the highest rate in the NFL last season, and the Falcons had the second-worst field-goal conversion rate, per ClevTA's 2025 NFL preview. They brought in competition at kicker and will play 10 games in domes next year. Hence, their field-goal luck should improve this year.

Atlanta Falcons S Jessie Bates III celebrates with teammates after intercepting Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts at Lincoln Financial Field. (Photo credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images)

Also, Atlanta is projected to face the third-easiest schedule in the league this season, per FTN, and it was better than its record. The Falcons lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1 with a 46% postgame win expectancy (PGWE), the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 13 with a 96% PGWE, and two overtime games in Weeks 17-18 despite out-gaining both foes in yards per play. 

Ultimately, Penix doesn’t have to be a star. If he’s average, Atlanta’s improved defense, soft schedule, and existing offensive weapons give it a 35-40% chance of winning the NFC South. Currently, the Falcons are +230 at DraftKings to win the division, which has a 29% implied win probability. 

However, because I have a healthy fear of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as it relates to the Falcons winning the NFC South, ATLANTA OVER 9.5 ALTERNATE WINS (+225) at DraftKings is a better bet. There's a world where Tampa wins 11+ games and the Falcons clear 10 wins. 

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