2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational: 'Horses For The Course,' 'One-And-Done' Pick

Published•Updated

Get the iced tea and lemonade ready because it's 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational (API) week on the PGA TOUR. The API is the fourth "signature event" of the season and the best field yet with World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+300), No. 2 Rory McIlroy (+750), and No. 3 Xander Schauffele (+1600) teeing it up Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida this week. 

LISTEN to the OutKick Bets Podcast's 2025 Arnie Palmer Alert: Betting Preview Ft. Mark Harris

Bay Hill presents one of the biggest challenges on the PGA TOUR. There are many ways to "skin a cat" at Bay Hill with recent API winners including bombers, plodders, and short-game specialists. For more intel about the course, event history, and this year's API, check out the X posts below. 

Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025 ‘Horses For the Course’ 

The odds chosen are the best available at legal U.S. sportsbooks at the time of writing, according to OddsChecker.com. 

Hideki Matsuyama (+2800)

'Deki was tied for the 36-hole lead at the 2024 Arnold Palmer and was two strokes behind Scheffler, the 2024 and 2022 API champion, entering the final round. Things went sideways for Matsuyama Sunday, shooting +4 because he missed several easy putts, and finished T12. 

Regardless, the 2021 Masters champion is playing better than he did before winning the green jacket. Matsuyama is fifth in average Strokes Gained (SG) and won the first "signature event" of the season: The Sentry 2025. 

Hideki hasn't missed a cut this year despite losing shots on the field in driving accuracy in five straight starts. Hopefully, he worked on his driving while taking the Cognizant Classic off last week. Because, as long as Matsuyama hits fairways at Bay Hill, he’s one of the few guys in the world who can beat Scottie if he plays his A-game.

BET 0.71 units (u) on Hideki Matsuyama (+2800) to profit 20u 

_____________________________

Justin Thomas (+2800) 

We are finally getting "good odds" for Thomas because Xander returns from a rib injury this week and Ludvig Åberg won The Genesis. JT's odds have been lower than +2000 in his first five starts this year. People have been trying to "catch a falling knife" and betting Thomas to snap his windless drought dating back to the 2022 PGA Championship. 

I've avoided that trap and have been waiting for a 20-to-1 price or better. JT has finished in the top 10 three times this season — second at The American Express, T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, and T9 at The Genesis — so, he is close to getting the monkey off his back. Thomas was T12 at the 2024 API and gained strokes in the four major golf stats.

Justin Thomas chips onto the green during the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida. (Photo credit: Reinhold Matay-Imagn Images)

Justin Thomas chips onto the green during the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida. (Photo credit: Reinhold Matay-Imagn Images)

While this bet is "price dependent," Thomas is first in my 24-round models at Bet The Number and Fantasy National. JT is a 15-time winner on TOUR and was a top-five player in the world at his peak. He will win again this season, and I'd want to be early on Thomas, not late, especially at this price. 

BET 0.71u on Justin Thomas (+2800) to profit 20u 

_____________________________

Will Zalatoris (+5000)

Bay Hill is one of the toughest courses on TOUR. Zalatoris is likelier to win an event with a higher winning score because he is an outstanding ball striker but sucks at putting. He has gained strokes off-the-tee (OTT) in his five starts this season, three of which were "signature events": The Sentry (T26), the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (T48), and The Genesis Invitational (T24). 

Crossover courses to Bay Hill include the other three "Florida Swing" tracks and TPC Southwind, where they play the FedEx St. Jude Championship because it has Bermudagrass greens and a lot of water danger, like the Florida courses. Zalatoris has gained strokes with his irons in all 11 starts at these courses and his only PGA TOUR win is the 2022 FedEx St. Jude. 

Finally, I’ve dubbed Bay Hill "Torrey Pines West" because they are long and difficult, and Tiger Woods has won eight times on both courses. Zalatoris has a T7, second, and a T13 in three of his five career Farmers Insurance Open played at Torrey Pines. He was T4 at Bay Hill last year and T10 at the 2021 API. 

BET 0.4u on Will Zalatoris (+5000) to profit 20u 

_____________________________

Robert MacIntyre (+6000) 

I'm "buying low" on the Scot who missed The Genesis cut in his most recent start. However, he missed the cut in the tournament before both of his wins at the RBC Canadian and Genesis Scottish Opens last season. 

There is a chance of 20+ mph wind gusts in Orlando this weekend. If Bay Hill plays tough this week, I want someone who can handle those conditions. MacIntyre grew up playing in windy weather conditions in Scotland. 

Furthermore, Bay Hill has long and penal rough, so there’s a premium on driving accuracy this week. MacIntyre is eighth in Strokes Gained (SG): OTT this year and 21st in driving accuracy. 

Lastly, most approach shots are from 200+ yards at Bay Hill, including three Par-3s longer than 200 yards. Bobby Mac ranks second on TOUR in "birdie-or-better" rate from 200+ yards this year and second in SG: APP from 200+ yards in 2024. 

BET 0.33u on Robert MacIntyre (+6000) to profit 20u 

_____________________________

Max Greyserman (+11000)

Greyserman hasn’t missed a cut since the Canadian Open last June. The week after, he finished T21 at the 2024 U.S. Open. Max has five top-10s in his previous 13 starts and a T11 at the Cognizant last week. He is a lights-out putter and Bermudagrass greens are his best putting surface. 

Plus, over the last 24 rounds, Greyserman is third in this field for APP shots from 200+ yards, per Fantasy National. He’s got a well-rounded game and ranks 13th in this field for Par 5 scoring, which is my favorite stat because it tests every skill. 

BET 0.18u on Max Greyserman (+11000) to profit 20u 

_____________________________

2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational ‘One-And-Done Pick’: Russell Henley 

After the Cognizant Classic, my "Race to the Mayo Cup 2025" balance is $915,604, tying me for 2,954th out of 4,500 entries. This is the first golfer I'm using in one-and-done who I haven't bet to win the tournament because I'm saving Scottie, Rory, Xander, Matsuyama, and Ludvig. 

Nonetheless, Henley has three T10 finishes or better in his last four starts: T10 at the Sony Open, T5 at Pebble Beach, and T6 at the Cognizant, and hasn't missed a cut since THE PLAYERS Championship last year. Also, his game fits Bay Hill. Henley putts well on Bermudagrass, is great with his long irons, and is one of the most accurate drivers on TOUR.  

Previous Picks
  • Sony Open: Austin Eckroat ($0)
  • The American Express: Sam Burns ($57,640)
  • Farmers Insurance Open: Rico Hoey ($0)
  • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Jason Day ($368,500)
  • Waste Management Phoenix Open: Andrew Novak ($0)
  • The Genesis Invitational: Collin Morikawa ($270,714)
  • Mexico Open: Nicolai Højgaard ($218,800)
  • Cognizant Classic: Davis Thompson ($0)

_____________________________

Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X all season.