NBA 2025-26 Futures, Awards Bets: Longshots Worth Your Money

A special OutKick investigation reveals that the NBA 2025-26 season tips off Tuesday, October 21, not that any of you care. I know most OutKick readers hate the NBA, and it's a pain in the a** to bet because of load management and the 3-point randomness. That said, basketball is my favorite sport, and I feel like I know more about the NBA than any other league. 

Listen: OutKick Bets Podcast's 2025-26 NBA Western Conference Team Win Totals

Unfortunately, my betting results over the past two seasons suggest I don't know sh*t. Nevertheless, I'll give out NBA picks daily on this website and my X account, whether you like it or not. Below are my value bets for season awards and team futures, which all have a plus-money payout because I won't pay a tax for a future that grades out in 2026. 

2025-26 NBA Season Awards Best Bets

• Oklahoma City Thunder big Chet Holmgren, Most Improved Player (+6000) via BetMGM, risking 0.25 units (u).
• Minnesota Timberwolves head coach Chris Finch, Coach of the Year (+2200) via DraftKings, risking 0.25u.
• Memphis Grizzlies PG Ja Morant, Clutch Player of the Year (+4000) via BetMGM, risking 0.25u.
• New York Knicks SF Josh Hart, Sixth Man of the Year (+2000) via DraftKings, risking 0.25u.

Most Improved Player: Chet Holmgren (+6000) 

Chet fits my "Four-Year Pop Theory" the best because he plays basketball the right way. Holmgren competes defensively, protects the rim, rebounds, shoots it well, and takes advantage of smaller defenders. We are getting a good number for Chet here because he played only 32 games last season and missed his whole rookie season. 

But Holmgren played all 82 games two seasons ago and every game during OKC’s title run. His path to winning the Most Improved Player award is 20+ points, 10+ rebounds, and 2.5+ blocks per game, and his first NBA All-Star game appearance.

Coach of the Year: Chris Finch (+2800) 

I’m betting Minnesota to win the Northwest Division over the Thunder and Denver Nuggets, which means the T-Wolves could be the 1-seed in the Western Conference. If that happens, Finch will at least be a finalist for the Red Auerbach Trophy. 

And as much as I love Timberwolves All-Star Anthony Edwards, I don’t think he snipes the NBA MVP. With that in mind, Finch’s 28-to-1 price to win Coach of the Year is the second-best value in any award market to profit from the possibility of Minnesota exceeding expectations.

Clutch Player of the Year: Ja Morant (+4000) 

Memphis should be in a lot of competitive games in a tough Western Conference. Ja had the ninth-highest usage rate in clutch time last season and a +10.0 net rating in those situations. Morant is the Grizzlies’ point guard and leading scorer. He’ll have more offensive responsibility this season after Memphis traded former SG Desmond Bane to the Orlando Magic this offseason. 

Even though Ja won’t have a good enough season to be a real NBA MVP contender, I bet the Grizzlies to win the Southwest Division, and if that happens, Morant should get the bulk of the credit. I.e., +4000 is a good price for Ja, given his talent and importance to Memphis.

Sixth Man of the Year: Josh Hart (+2000) 

NYK’s beatwriters and Reddit channel think first-year head coach Mike Brown will start C Mitchell Robinson instead of Hart. He fills up the box score. Hart led the Knicks with nine triple-doubles last season, when he averaged 13.6 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game. 

Also, award winners usually come from good teams, and I have a few of the players ahead of Hart on the oddsboard for Sixth Man of the Year missing the playoffs, such as Boston Celtics’ Anfernee Simons (+1400), New Orleans Pelicans’ Jordan Poole (+1800), and Houston Rockets’ Tari Eason (+1800). 

New York Knicks forward Josh Hart goes to the rim against the Indiana Pacers in the 2025 NBA Eastern Conference Finals. (Photo credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images)

Finally, since Robinson has been plagued by injuries for his entire career, there’s a solid chance Hart beefs up his numbers in the games when he replaces Mitch in the starting 5.

Teams to Invest In 

• Miami Heat Southeast Division Winner (+1500) via BetMGM, risking 0.25u.
• Memphis Grizzlies Southwest Division Winner (+1200) via DraftKings, risking 0.25u.
• Minnesota Timberwolves Northwest Division Winner (+1600) via DraftKings, risking 0.25u.

Southeast Division: Miami Heat (+1500) 

This is a disrespectful price for a Heat team that has the best coach in the NBA (Erik Spoelstra), according to the general manager survey. They are the third-betting favorite to win this division, well behind the Orlando Magic (-160) and Atlanta Hawks (+150). I don't believe in either, because the Magic can't shoot, and the Hawks still have a Trae Young problem. 

The market is low on Miami after it fell short of its 44.5 regular-season win total last season by going 37-45. Yet, the Heat was dealing with a disgruntled Jimmy Butler, who pretty much walked out on the team. Now that's behind them, the Heat can rebuild with a solid roster led by All-Star combo guard Tyler Herro. 

The Miami Heat have a nice one-two punch with All-Stars Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo. (Photo credit: Reggie Hildred-Imagn Images)

They signed SG Norman Powell this offseason, and I like how second-year C Kel'el Ware fits alongside PF Bam Adebayo, who is one of the best defensive players in basketball. Powell averaged a career-best 21.8 points per game (PPG) last season on .484/.418/.804 shooting. He gives Miami the shooting and scoring it needs. 

Listen: OutKick Bets Podcast's 2025-26 NBA Eastern Conference Team Win Totals

Finally, the Heat have a bunch of solid role players, including forwards Nikola Jokić and Andrew Wiggins, PG Davion Mitchell, and rookie PG Kasparas Jakucionis. Wiggins is an NBA champion and 3-and-D guy. Mitchell is one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA. Jakucionis was voted the biggest steal in the 2025 NBA Draft by the GMs.

Southwest Division: Memphis Grizzlies (+1200) 

Memphis is the fourth-betting favorite to win this division behind the three Texas teams. The Grizzlies still have their two best players, Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., from when they won back-to-back division titles from 2021-23. Jackson was the 2022-23 NBA Defensive Player of the Year, and Ja is an All-NBA-caliber guard; both are only 25 years old. 

They went 48-34 last season despite Morant only playing in 50 games. But Memphis was 30-20 in the games Morant played. So, if he can suit up for 70+ games, the Grizzlies should flirt with 50+ wins this season. Memphis has a lot of injuries entering the season, but it's one of the deepest teams in the NBA. 

The Grizzlies traded former SG Desmond Bane to Orlando this offseason for SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and the market is overreacting to that trade. Don't get me wrong, Bane is a solid player, but KCP is a 3-and-D guy who doesn't need plays run for him to stay engaged. This bet is obviously "price dependent," and Memphis should be the second-betting favorite in this division. 

Northwest Division: Minnesota Timberwolves (+1600) 

Get this: Minnesota is +1600 to win the division, +900 to win the Western Conference, and +1400 to win the NBA title at DraftKings. Granted, the Timberwolves play in the same division as the reigning NBA champions and the Denver Nuggets. However, the Northwest is a three-horse race, and I have to bet the T-Wolves out of principle. 

There's a world where OKC has a "championship hangover" or "flip the switch" around the All-Star break. Minnesota won 56 games two seasons ago, and the most Denver has won in the Nikola Jokić era is 57. The Timberwolves could win the Northwest with 57-60 wins this season, and still have worse title odds than the Thunder and Nuggets entering the playoffs. 

Minnesota Timberwolves All-Star Anthony Edwards dunking the ball vs. the Denver Nuggets at Target Center. (Photo Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images)

T-Wolves All-Star Anthony Edwards still hasn't hit his prime and is trending towards a 30+ PPG scorer. It took time for Minnesota newcomers Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo to find their grooves after being traded right before the start of last season. Post-All-Star break, the Timberwolves won 69% (nice) of their games, and that's the team I'm expecting to see this season. 

Teams to Short 

• Houston Rockets to MISS THE PLAYOFFS (+900) via BetMGM, risking 0.25u.
• Atlanta Hawks UNDER 43.5 WINS (+230) via DraftKings, risking 0.5u.

Houston Rockets to Miss the Playoffs (+900) 

After trading for Kevin Durant this offseason, Houston lost what made it special last season. Now, the Rockets are a "KD team," and he is 37 years old. The Phoenix Suns didn't make the playoffs last season with Durant, an Olympic gold medalist and four-time All-Star, Devin Booker, and a title-winning head coach. 

In fact, the 2023-25 Suns and 2021-23 Brooklyn Nets all fell short of their win totals with KD as their best player. Durant missed nearly 30 games per season over that span, and Houston needs him to play 60+ to be a top-six seed in the West. The Rockets could be eliminated from playoff contention by losing in the play-in tournament. 

Houston Rockets forward Kevin Durant shoots over the New Orleans Pelicans during an NBA preseason game. (Photo Credit: Vasha Hunt-Imagn Images)

Do I think Houston will be bad this season? No. I love Rockets head coach Ime Udoka and big Alperen Şengün. But if KD's teams underperformed vs. expectations with Booker, James Harden, Kyrie Irving, Houston could too, and +900 is a juicy payout. 

Atlanta Hawks UNDER 43.5 Alternate Wins (+230) 

The bottom line is, I philosophically disagree with how Trae plays basketball, and Atlanta is still his team. Young is a heliocentric small guard who can't play defense and doesn't move without the ball. If Trae doesn't have the ball, he's useless, and the Hawks need him to be an All-Star. They haven't won 44+ games since 2015-16, and Young was drafted in 2018. 

Meanwhile, I disagree with the NBA general managers who voted on Atlanta as making the best offseason moves. The Hawks added big Kristaps Porziņģis, and guards Luke Kennard and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. KP wasn't healthy enough to play meaningful minutes for the Boston Celtics in their title defense last season, and Kennard and NAW aren't "needle movers". 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NBA 2025-26 bets here.