College Football Playoff Semifinal Best Bets: Miami-Ole Miss, Oregon-Indiana

A five-day college and NFL playoff football blockbuster kicks off with the 10-seed Miami Hurricanes facing the 6-seed Ole Miss Rebels Thursday in the Fiesta Bowl, aka the semifinals of the 2025-26 College Football Playoff. Then, the party continues Friday when the 5-seed Oregon Ducks take on the 1-seed Indiana Hoosiers in a rematch from earlier this season. 

Every day is a gift for me when it comes to betting on college football this season. My 3-1 record in last week's CFP quarterfinals improved my college football season record to 23-10, with a 31.6% return on investment for 11.82 units (u). This is by far the best season for betting on college football of my life. Let's continue to add to the bankroll in Miami-Ole Miss and Oregon-Indiana. 

2025-26 College Football Playoff Semifinal Bet Slip

• UNDER 52.5 (-110), down to 51, in Miami Hurricanes vs. Ole Miss Rebels via FanDuel, risking 1.1u.
• Oregon Ducks +3.5 (-105), down +3, vs. Indiana Hoosiers via BetMGM, risking 1.1u.
• Oregon Ducks +154 moneyline via FanDuel, risking 0.4u.

UNDER 52.5 in Miami Hurricanes vs. Ole Miss Rebels in Fiesta Bowl 

The U will turn this into a "rock-fight." They are an "Under team." Miami is 5-9 Over/Under (O/U) this season and 1-4 O/U vs. ranked opponents, including its first two games in the CFP. The Hurricanes are fifth nationally in time of possession, and both teams run the ball at a higher rate than they pass it. 

Miami plays smash-mouth football, and head coach Mario Cristobal is not exactly known for lighting up scoreboards with creative playcalling. Ole Miss interim head coach Pete Golding was promoted from his defensive coordinator role for the CFP after Lane Kiffin bolted for LSU. So yeah, don’t expect a track meet with these two coaches steering the ship.

Furthermore, Rebels QB Trinidad Chambliss played out of his mind against the Bulldogs last week, and he can’t do that vs. the ‘Canes. Don’t get me wrong, Chambliss is awesome, and I bet Ole Miss last week. He threaded needles and turned broken plays into highlights against Georgia. 

However, Miami’s front seven is much better, and I have more faith in Miami pass-rushers Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr. chasing Chambliss down if he tries to extend plays like he did last week. He is good and all, but Chambliss played out of his a** last week, and I'm betting he comes back down to earth in the Fiesta Bowl. 

With a weapon like PK Lucas Carneiro, the Rebels might take the points instead of gambling on 4th-and-medium. Carneiro hit 55-, 56-, and 47-yard field goals in the Sugar Bowl last week, and the kicking conditions will be perfect in State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, for the Fiesta Bowl. Throw in Miami’s defense, and this one shapes up to be low-scoring.

Prediction: Miami 27, Ole Miss 17

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Oregon Ducks (+3.5) vs. Indiana Hoosiers in Peach Bowl 

Call me "old-fashioned," but defense wins championships, and Oregon’s defense this season separates it from previous Dan Lanning teams. Since hiring Lanning in 2022, this is the first season the Ducks have allowed fewer than 5.0 yards per play (4.3) and rank in the top 10 for points allowed (15.1 per game). 

So, this is the first time I’d bet Oregon to win and cover against a championship-caliber team, like Indiana, which plays well on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, I’m getting the vibe that the market is dismissing Oregon’s 24-0 shutout of the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the CFP quarterfinals last week. 

Yes, the Red Raiders were an inferior opponent. However, the Ducks held them to 3.5 yards per play and 10 first downs. Oregon forced four turnovers, sacked Texas Tech QB Behren Morton four times, and had seven tackles for a loss. I mean, what else can the Ducks do? At this point, you have to move them up in your power rankings.

The Indiana Hoosiers meet the Oregon Ducks in the Peach Bowl Friday in the 2025-26 College Football Playoff semifinals. (Photo credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images)

Their first meeting could’ve gone either way, and the Ducks have more talent, the Hoosiers have a slightly better quarterback, and the coaching matchup is a toss-up. Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza won the 2025 Heisman, but he and Oregon QB Dante Moore will likely be the first and second quarterbacks taken in the 2026 NFL Draft. 

In fact, Moore has better big-time throw and turnover-worthy play rates than Mendoza, per Pro Football Focus. If you want to split hairs, fine, head coach Curt Cignetti getting the Hoosiers into the CFP semifinals is more impressive than what Lanning has done in Eugene. But Lanning is no slouch either. He is 48-7 at Oregon, 4-1 in bowl games, and the Ducks were the 1-seed in last year’s CFP. 

That said, my fair price for this game is "Indiana -2," but I'm sprinkling on Oregon's moneyline because this is a coin-flip matchup. 

Prediction: Oregon 24, Indiana 21

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