2023 World Series Game 2 Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks At Texas Rangers
It wasn't the matchup anyone wanted or expected. But, the 2023 World Series opener Friday between the Arizona Diamondbacks (0-1) and Texas Rangers (1-0) was an instant classic. Game 2 of the Fall Classic starts at 8:03 p.m. ET.
Texas beat Arizona 6-5 in extra innings in Game 1 with a walk-off HR by Rangers All-Star Adolis Garcia. This was after Texas SS Corey Seager hit a game-tying 2-run home run in the bottom of the 9th.
For Game 2, the D-Backs send out RHP Merrill Kelly and the Rangers counter with LHP Jordan Montgomery. Kelly went 12-8 in the regular-season with a 3.29 ERA. While Montgomery was 10-11 with a 3.20 ERA.
During this postseason, Kelly is 2-1 with 5 ER on 9 H, 3 HR and a 19/8 K/BB rate over 17.0 IP in three starts. Montgomery is 3-0 in five appearances with 7 runs (6 ER) and a 17/4 K/BB rate across 25.0 IP.
Diamondbacks at Rangers World Series Game 2
Betting odds for the Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers in Game 2 of the 2023 World Series.
First of all, give me Montgomery over Kelly. Montgomery has been fantastic since going to Texas at the trade deadline. The lefty was 4-2 with a 2.79 ERA in 11 regular-season starts with the Rangers this year.
Furthermore, Montgomery's pitching peripherals are better than Kelly's. Montgomery has a 3.75 career FIP ("fielding independent pitching") and 3.4 K/BB rate. While Kelly has a 4.02 career FIP with a 2.9 K/BB rate. FIP is more predictive than ERA and the essence of pitching is strikeouts vs. walks.
Since 2020, Montgomery's teams (the New York Yankees, St. Louis Cardinals, and Rangers) are 14-5 as home favorites of -150 or less. There is a +30.% return on investment attached to that record as well.
Rangers LHP Jordan Montgomery pitches vs. the Houston Astros during the 2023 ALCS at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. (Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)
Also, Texas's lineup was more productive in the regular season and has been better in the playoffs. The Rangers out-rank the D-Backs in wRC+ (125-94) and wOBA (.355-.312) this postseason, according to FanGraphs.
Texas are much better against left-handed pitching than Arizona vs. righties. The Rangers average more runs (5.5-4.0), hits (6.8-3.2), HRs (1.2-0.3), and walks (2.8-1.1) against lefties than the D-Backs vs. left-handed pitching, per Covers.com.