2023 Circa Million V NFL Week 7 Selections Include Ravens, Bills, Rams
I don't want to discuss what happened in last week's Circa Million V. It was a disgrace and I'm ashamed. Two bad beats and two no-shows is what caused it. Instead of whining about it, I'll dust myself off and bounce back this week.
Week 6 Recap (1-4):
As a result of last week's horror show, I've fallen under .500 in the Circa Million for the 1st time since last season. My record entering NFL Week 7 sits at 14-16. I'm so far outside of the money I don't even want to look at the standings.
Circa Million V NFL Week 7 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
Circa Million Pick #1: Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-3)
Usually, I make my favorite bets early in the week to get some "closing line value" (CLV). Hence I've already written and podcasted about this matchup. The Lions look legit but we are still finding out if they are for real.
This will be a good litmus test for Detroit. The Ravens are a Super Bowl contender and perennial playoff team. Plus, as I've said numerous times already, Baltimore has the better quarterback, coach, and defense.
(LISTEN to Lions-Ravens analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #2: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)
Seattle and my 5th Circa Million V pick (the Buffalo Bills) are my "Teaser of NFL Week 7." This is a better teaser leg and contest pick than cash wager. But, the Seahawks are getting CLV. As of Saturday afternoon, some sportsbooks list Seattle as a -8.5 favorite.
Seattle's Week 6 result — a 17-3 loss at the Cincinnati Bengals — is the most misleading result from last week. I know because the Seahawks were the last team to make my Circa Million V NFL Week 6 card.
But, they crushed the Bengals on the stats. Seattle had roughly eight more minutes of possession than Cincy with many more yards per play (5.4-4.0) and 1st downs (24-15). The Seahawks lost because QB Geno Smith choked on scoring opportunities.
Last week, Seattle was 1-for-5 in the red zone. The Seahawks had the ball inside Cincinnati's 10-yard twice with less than 2:30 remaining and came away with 0 points. However, based on down-to-down efficiency, Seattle was the better team.
That said, I found a few trends that give me confidence in the Seahawks. Since 2013, they are 21-10-1 against the spread (ATS) at home after a loss, 16-8-1 ATS as home favorites after a loss, and 10-4 ATS as home favorites of -7 or more after a loss.
Finally, after a feisty few weeks, the Cardinals are what we thought they were. Which is a bad team. Arizona has three straight double-digit losses and have a terrible defense. The god-awful New York Giants scored 31 second-half points vs. the Cardinals in Week 2.
(LISTEN to Cardinals-Seahawks analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #3: Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This feels like a sketchy line. The Bucs lost at home last week to the Detroit Lions who everyone loves. The Falcons lost at home in Week 6 to a Washington Commanders team no one loves. Especially Washington fans.
Furthermore, Atlanta is 1-5 ATS this season and Tampa Bay is 3-2 straight up (SU) and ATS. Falcons QB Desmond Ridder is on his way to being benched. Bucs QB Baker Mayfield is having a resurgent season in Tampa. So why are they only -2.5 favorites at home?
My hunch is the Falcons are due for some good turnover-luck and Atlanta's defense is underrated by the public. The Falcons have a -6 turnover margin. Turnovers are flukey and, if you remove turnovers, Atlanta has better offensive efficiency than Tampa.
Also, the Bucs have a +6 turnover margin and are due for bad turnover-luck. Mayfield has protected the ball this season but, eventually, "old Baker" will come back. With that in mind, Atlanta's defense has some ballers.
Falcons safety Jessie Bates III is a top-10 defensive player in the NFL and leads a sneaky good secondary. Atlanta has a strong interior defensive line and Tampa has a weak interior offensive line. If the Falcons get pressure in Mayfield's face, Atlanta will force turnovers.
(LISTEN to Falcons-Buccaneers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #4: Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Rams (-3)
My biggest concern with this pick is how Pittsburgh performs on extended rest. The Steelers are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS after their last five bye weeks. There are just spots you don't want to fade Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin. And this may be one of them.
Ultimately, I cannot pass up on the Rams at this price because I was much higher on them entering the season than the Steelers. Rams QB Matt Stafford is slinging it this year, LA rookie WR Puka Nacua has been a sensation and Cooper Kupp is back.
Lastly, LA will capitalize on more scoring opportunities than Pittsburgh. The Rams rank 11th in red zone TD rate and the Steelers are dead-last. Pittsburgh's defense is 20th in opponent's red zone TD rate whereas LA's ranks 8th.
Pick #5: Buffalo Bills (-8.5) at New England Patriots
I told you guys the Patriots would suck this season. They are going to be an underdog in most games this year and, since 2022, New England is 1-12 SU and 2-11 ATS as a 'dog. There are rumors this will be Bill Belichick's final season with the Patriots. It's all bad in New England.
My lone concern with this pick is Josh Allen's should injury. However, Buffalo hates the Patriots. The Bills are 3-0 SU and ATS with a +14.8 spread differential in their last three visits to Foxborough.
It's also a bounce-back spot for the Bills. They put up a stinker at home on Sunday Night Football in Week 6. Buffalo only beat a Dan Jones-less Giants 14-9 last week and the Bills will take pull out the good plays for the Patriots Sunday.
Buffalo leads the NFL in pressure rate while New England has the 2nd-worst pass-block win rate, per ESPN. Even if Allen isn't 100%, the Bills' defense could cover this spread. It wouldn't be ideal but it's doable.
(LISTEN to Bills-Patriots analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).