Two Best Bets For The 2024 NBA Play-In Tournament Doubleheader Friday
Hopefully, OutKick readers are warming up to professional basketball because I'm printing money in the 2024 SoFi NBA Play-in Tournament. I've gone 4-0 so far in the play-in tourney and my NBA betting win streak is 11 games. The Association takes Thursday off before wrapping up the play-in tournament on Friday.
NBA Play-In Tournament Finales Betting Card
The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
UNDER 205.5 in Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat, 7 p.m. ET
Heat SF Jimmy Butler will miss at least the 1st-round of the playoffs after suffering an knee injury in Miami’s first play-in game. Butler is the Heat’s de facto point guard and combo guard Tyler Herro is their only other player that creates looks for teammates.
When Butler is off the court, Miami scores 7.0 fewer points-per-100-possessions in non-garbage time, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). No Butler means more Heat forwards Haywood Highsmith and Caleb Martin, who are much better defenders than offensive players.
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Chicago will most likely be without SG Alex Caruso, its best on-ball defender. Since I’m on the Under, I’d prefer if Caruso was out there Friday. However, the market steamed the total down from a 209.5 opener to 205.5 as of 3:30 p.m. ET Thursday. This is despite greater than 90% of the action being on the Over at the time of writing, per Pregame.com.
Also, I’m looking to fade the results of the 1st play-in games because public bettors tend to fall into recency bias. Both teams went Over the total in their 1st Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament games Wednesday. Miami lost to the Philadelphia 76ers 105-104, which barely went Over the 208.5 total.
The Under bettors took a god-awful beat thanks to a 66-point 4th quarter in Heat-76ers. The Bulls trampled the Atlanta Hawks 131-116 in the other play-in game out East. At least 60 points were scored in the 1st three-quarters of Hawks-Bulls. Chicago SG Coby White is having a breakout season and scored a game-high 42 points vs. Atlanta.
Chicago Bulls SG Coby White blows past Atlanta Hawks SF De'Andre Hunter at a play-in game for the 2024 NBA playoffs at United Center in Illinois. (David Banks-USA TODAY Sports)
Despite this information, the 209.5 total for Bulls-Heat Friday is suspiciously low. This is especially true when considering these teams are 3-1 Over/Under in four meetings this season, including three consecutive Overs while combining to score 222.7 points per game (PPG).
Finally, play-in games usually go Under the total and their styles make for a low-scoring affair. The Bulls and Heat are 28th and 29th in pace, respectively. They are both in the top 10 defensively in points off of turnovers, fastbreak PPG, and paint PPG allowed.
Bet 1.1u on the UNDER 205.5 in Bulls-Heat (-110). The UNDER is bet-able down to 205.
- For the record, I'm waiting until closer to tip-off before locking in a bet. I'm hoping the public bets this total back up toward the opening number of 209.
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Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans (+105), 9:30 p.m. ET
Pelicans PF Zion Williamson will be out Friday after tweaking his hamstring in NOLA’s 110-106 loss to the LA Lakers in the 1st play-in game Tuesday. Zion was the best player on the floor in Lakers-Pelicans. He scored a game-high 40 points on 17-of-27 and grabbed 10 boards. As a Pelicans backer, I’d prefer if Williamson played. Yet, he has a -4.8 on/off net rating, per CTG. New Orleans can compensate for Zion's scoring against Sacramento’s mediocre defense.
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In a must-win game, I expect Ingram to score 20+ points with an increased workload. The Pelicans dominated the Kings on the glass this season and that won’t change Friday. New Orleans grabbed 13.4 more rebounds per game than Sacramento in their five regular-season meetings. With Zion out, I expect NOLA’s role players to crash the glass harder in this must-win game.
My main reason for thinking the Pelicans can steal this game is their blend of veterans and youth. New Orleans combo guard C.J. McCollum, PF Larry Nance Jr., and C Jonas Valančiūnas are professionals who contribute. McCollum sucked in the first play-in game. But, he shot 42.9% from behind the arc, 7th in the NBA.
C.J. scored 26.0 PPG vs. Sacramento this season on 60.4% shooting and 70.4% from three with a 149 offensive rating! Valančiūnas is a beefcake and can bully Kings PF Domantas Sabonis in the paint. Jonas averaged 14.2 PPG and 11.4 rebounds with a 144 offensive rating in five games against the Kings.
New Orleans Pelicans C Jonas Valanciunas backs down Sacramento Kings C Domantas Sabonis at Smoothie King Center in Louisiana. (Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports)
Additionally, Pelicans PG Jose Alvarado and forwards Herb Jones and Trey Murphy III are young and looking to earn more money and playing time down the road. All three of them are sick on-ball defenders, who can pester Kings PG De’Aaron Fox, the best player in this game.
Everyone is betting Sacramento since it blasted the Golden State Warriors 118-94 in the 1st play-in game and New Orleans is missing Williamson. More than 75% of the action is on the Kings as of Thursday at 12:30 p.m. ET, per Pregame.com. The public betting splits mean more in the NBA playoffs. Considering this, I’m making the NEW ORLEANS PELICANS +105 MONEYLINE at DraftKings a 2.5u bet.
Bet 2.5u on New Orleans's moneyline (+105) at DraftKings. The Pelicans are playable up to -130.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.