+130 Player Prop Is The Way To Go Tonight

Braves vs. Marlins, 6:40 ET

Some days I struggle to find games that are appealing right off the bat. There are other days, like today, where the pitching matchups look great and plays stand out to me for a number of reasons. There are a ton of great ones on the board today, but I won't sit here and tell you that a great pitching matchup means an under or that we have an edge in each game. That's what you have to examine every game and see what you truly find an advantage in. I think I've found an advantage here as the Braves take on the Marlins. 

The Braves are having a truly brutal season. They are 12 games under .500 for the season, and all 12 of those losses can be found in an easy way. This team has dropped 38 of their 64 road games this season. They had a bad start and never really fully recovered despite getting to .500 at one point in the year. The team has dealt with injuries and lineup changes repeatedly, but that's similar to what most teams experience over the course of the year. This club has a lot of potential still, and it could just be one bad year. I'd expect a few changes for them, specifically with their rotation, next year. Today, they send out a guy that they need to have get back into proper form if they want next year to be different, Spencer Strider. Strider is 5-11 for the year with an eye-popping 5.24 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. He is still striking people out regularly, with 102 in 89.1 innings. He has been worse on the road than he has been in Atlanta. This has been a brutal month for Strider, allowing 20 earned runs in 11.2 innings. The Braves have lost all three games, and Strider has allowed at least five earned runs in each of the games. Not only that, but he has allowed 29 hits and seven homers in that stretch. Ugly is an understatement. Somehow, the Marlins have never faced Strider, but in his current form, you, the reader, might be able to get a hit off of him. 

ATLANTA, GA - JULY 12: Spencer Strider #65 of the Atlanta Braves pitches during the first inning against the New York Mets at Truist Park on July 12, 2022 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

A few weeks ago, the Marlins were in contention for the playoffs. There were a lot of teams that were considered in contention for the playoffs, but Miami was a surprise for me - probably more than anyone in baseball. The fact that they are in third, and not fifth, within the division is an improvement year-over-year. It isn't going to win them any championship or anything, but it is at least a potential launching pad for next season. Unfortunately, they will have to deal with the Braves, Phillies, and Mets again next season. Perhaps even a rejuvenated and new look Nationals team. Their pitching hasn't been great, but good enough. Today, they send out Edward Cabrera to the mound. He is 6-7 for the season with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. He is coming off of two of his worst starts of the season, where he has allowed 11 runs (nine earned) in 9.2 innings. He has been a strikeout machine, though, whiffing 30 hitters in his last 23.2 innings. He had a start against the Braves a few games ago, and he allowed two hits, including one solo homer over eight innings while striking out 11 batters. Overall, the Braves hitters are hitting just 10 for 67 against Cabrera. 

I keep thinking about how much can change from year to year in baseball. Strider being a -110 favorite against the Marlins and not facing Sandy Alcantara is crazy to see, but he has been terrible this year. I like the over in this game, and I like the Braves to win it, but not as much as I like a player prop. In this one, I'm taking Matt Olson to go under 0.5 hits. For his career, Olson is 1-for-10 against Cabrera and has struck out six times. That play is +130. 

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