Geoff Clark
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I’m pretty much the GOAT again after going 2-1 in the NBA Thursday. Just kidding, obviously. This NBA season has been a disaster but I’m digging Friday’s slate.
There are a ton of good games and I like how I’m seeing the board. All of my NBA action Friday is out West. The games handicapped below are the Suns at the Kings, Trail Blazers hosting the Bulls, and Thunder visiting the Lakers.
Check out NBA Hoops At Lunch basketball betting show on the OutKick Bets Podcast feed for the audio versions of the handicaps below.
Phoenix Suns (38-34) at Sacramento Kings (43-29), 10 p.m. ET
I’m willing to excuse Sacramento’s back-to-back (B2B) losses vs. the Jazz and Celtics. The Kings wrapped up a 4-game road trip Monday in Utah, which is a tough place to play and the Jazz are feisty.
Then the Kings got blitzed in their 1st home game back vs. Boston Tuesday. But, it was the 2nd of a B2B for Sactown and the Kings got out to a 1st-quarter lead before the Celtics put their foot on the gas.
Sacramento is well-rested and is 5.5 games ahead of Phoenix in the Pacific Division. A win Friday vs. the Suns would almost lock up the division for the Kings. Also, Sactown can tie the season series with a win vs. Phoenix Friday.
Phoenix is 0-6 against the spread (ATS) over the last six games and Kevin Durant and Deandre Ayton are both still out with injuries. The Kings are one of the deepest teams in the NBA and role players perform better at home usually.
Sactown is 4th in defensive wide-open 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr) and 2nd offensively over the last seven games. The Kings hit 15 threes vs. the Suns in Sacramento’s 128-119 win in Phoenix on March 11th.
Ayton had 22 points on 9-of-15 shooting that night and he won’t be available for Phoenix Friday. In their 2nd game back from a road trip, the Kings will be more acclimated with their home gym and roll the short-handed Suns.
NBA Best Bet #1: Kings -3.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -4
Chicago Bulls (34-38) at Portland Trail Blazers (32-40), 10 p.m. ET
First of all, how are the Chicago Bulls road favorites against anyone right now? Chicago is 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS (-7.3 spread differential) as road favorites this season.
Granted, the Trail Blazers will be without at least two, maybe three, starters. But, DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso are “questionable” for the Bulls.
DeRozan has been playing great this month (25.4 PPG on 50.6% shooting) but he went 0-for-7 in Chicago’s 116-91 loss to the Sixers Wednesday. This is the 1st of a 3-game road trip for the Bulls and I’m betting they give DeMar the night off.
Caruso’s defense will be needed to deal with Damian Lillard who is not listed on the injury report as of noon ET. Pat Beverley is the Chicago’s other backcourt starter and his annoying little pest antics will backfire Friday.
The 3-point shot is the most important thing in the NBA. Over their past seven games, the Trail Blazers have a better wide-open 3PAr than the Bulls on both ends of the floor.
We are getting value with Portland because it’s gotten routed in three straight home games. But those opponents were the Clippers, Celtics and Knicks, all of whom are much better than the Bulls.
NBA Best Bet #1: Trail Blazers +2.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to pick ’em
- Betting strategy: Definitely wait until the final injury reports are released. Lillard is “probable” to play and the Blazers pulled a bait-and-switch with Lillard when I bet them recently.
Oklahoma City Thunder (36-37) at Los Angeles Lakers (36-37), 10:30 p.m. ET
I like what I’m seeing out of the Lakers recently. Austin Reaves has provide a spark in LeBron James‘s absence and I’m making jokes with my Lakers buddies about how the “Lakers are Austin’s team now”.
Reaves is scoring 18.5 PPG this month on 56.3% shooting with 5.6 assists. Over his last two games, Reaves has gotten to the foul line 31 times (28-for-31) in LAL wins over the Magic and Suns.
Also, Anthony Davis dominated the Suns Wednesday. After a slow start, AD finished with 27 points on 10-of-18 shooting, 10 of which were in the 4th quarter and Davis effectively squashed Phoenix.
The Lakers have been attacking the basket aggressively and getting to the charity stripe. LAL is +5.3 in free throw attempts per game and OKC is 26th in free-throw attempts per game allowed.
LeBron allegedly is going to return in the final week in the season and his supporting cast is holding down the fort. The Lakers lead the NBA in bench PPG over their last seven games.
Finally, LAL has beaten who they are supposed to beat this season. The Lakers are 8-1 SU (+10.8 margin of victory) and 7-2 ATS (+4.3 spread differential) as -5 favorites or greater.
NBA Best Bet #3: Lakers -5.5 (-110) at DraftKings, up to -6
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
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