Betting Tonight’s Heat-Bucks Matchup

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The Heat and Bucks opened their series with one of the closest games we’ve seen in the opening games of the NBA Playoffs. Game 1 saw Kris Middleton have heroics with just 0.5 seconds left. Will this one come down to another last second shot, or will one of these teams start to separate themselves?

The line on the game is Bucks -4.5 with slightly increased vig on the home team and a total of 222. The total has dropped a point and a half since the opening line. These are good numbers to start our analysis with because we can look for adjustments from the first game to see how we play the second game. In Game 1, Butler and Adebayo shot a combined 8-37 from the field. Butler ended with just a 19% field goal percentage, and he was a 50% shooter during the regular season. This was also the first time he’s shot nine three-point attempts in a game all year. He typically averages only two attempts per game.  As Butler goes, so do the Heat. I expect him to be aggressive and shoot significantly better. I’m taking the Heat +4.5 and would not be surprised to see an outright winner. 

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While I like the Heat and Butler to respond well, I think it will come in the second half. The first half of the game is another opportunity that I like. The Bucks are 24-14-1 ATS at home against the spread in the first half. The Heat are 12-22-2 on the road ATS in the first half. The line sits at Milwaukee -2.5 at -108. The Bucks have also responded well in the first half of games off of an OT game. The Heat, on the other hand, have not. I really like this bet and will place two or three units on this. 

One small plus money play that I’m on is Jrue Holiday under 6.5 assists at +102. He only had three last game and averages 6.1 assists on the season. He’s had three games against them this year and had totals of 3, 5, and 7. Tread cautiously, because his assist numbers are all over the place this season. 

A long shot, but something I could see happening is Jimmy Butler getting a triple double tonight. At +750, it feels a bit low to risk something significant on, but he certainly has a shot at it. He had one in both of the games the Heat took from the Lakers last year. I also like Giannis Antetokunmpo at +1000 to get a triple double. Keep in mind, both of these are sprinkles, neither are plays I’d put a full unit on. I’d lean towards Giannis getting there more than Jimmy, but I think the both have the potential tonight. 

Written by OutKick Bets

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