BET: Rams ATS Vs. Packers In A Battle Of Two Pathetic Teams

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Granted, this is a season from hell for the reigning Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams (4-9) but what have the Green Bay Packers (5-8) done to be 7-point favorites over anyone? Rams-Packers at Lambeau Field is the Week 15 Monday Night Football game with kickoff scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET.

The Rams rallied from a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit to stun the Raiders 17-16 on Thursday Night Football in Week 14. LAR QB Baker Mayfield was making his first start for the team after being signed earlier in the week.

Green Bay had a bye in Week 14 after beating the yearly punching bag Bears 28-19 in Chicago Week 13. After a 3-1 start, the Packers’ season has gone down the tubes and Green Bay is 2-7 since.

Last season, Aaron Rodgers outgunned Matthew Stafford in the Packers’ 36-28 home win over the Rams. However, that game feels like a lifetime ago. Green Bay was the NFC’s No. 1 seed entering the postseason in 2021 and LAR won the Super Bowl.

Simply put, these are two terrible teams but only one has to win by more than seven points.

Betting Details (DraftKings)

This is a ‘better spot’ for the Rams

First of all, this has been a profitable spot for LAR since hiring Sean McVay in 2018. The Rams are 17-11-1 ATS in primetime games, 4-1 ATS as primetime road ‘dogs, and 5-3-1 on MNF over that span.

Green Bay is 3-1 ATS and 4-0 straight up (SU) in coach Matt LaFleur’s era (est. 2019) on MNF. The Packers faced the Lions in two of those games in 2019 and 2021. The 2019 Lions finished 3-12-1 SU and went 3-13-1 SU in 2021.

Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers talks with head coach Matt LaFleur against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field in Chicago.
Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers talks with head coach Matt LaFleur against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field in Chicago. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

The other team Green Bay played on MNF in the LaFleur era were the Vikings in 2019 — who’s QB, Kirk Cousins, is legendarily bad in primetime games — and a 2020 Falcons team that finished 4-12 SU. 

Now, this Rams team is one of the worst in the NFL but they still have Sean McVay. But, Baker has a lot more motivation for this game than Rodgers (more on that below). 

Furthermore …

The late-season bye is lost on Green Bay

the Packers are 1-2 ATS following their bye since hiring LaFleur with a 29-point loss to the 49ers and a 28-point loss to the Buccaneers.

Green Bay’s lone win and cover after a bye over that span was a 45-30 victory vs. the Bears in 2021. Those Bears finished 6-11 SU and ended up firing now-former head coach Matt Nagy.

Yet this feels like a throwaway year for Rodgers. Green Bay’s season has been FUBAR since trading former No. 1 WR Davante Adams this past offseason and Rodgers has been dealing with a thumb injury for weeks.

Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is dismayed while playing the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia.
Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is dismayed while playing the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. (Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

Rodgers also has been seemingly more interested in going on Pat McAfee’s and Joe Rogan’s podcasts than football. I don’t trust Rodgers to put in extra prep work during the bye now that Green Bay’s season is essentially over.

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Baker on the other hand is playing for his NFL career. There are rumblings that Stafford could retire at the end of the season due to the beating he has taken over his career.

Even if Stafford sticks around, Mayfield “failing up” to be a backup QB on a McVay team would be the best possible outcome for Baker’s weird 2022 season.

Also …

The Rams’ defense still has dudes

LAR’s defense can make the Packers one-dimensional by taking away the run. The Rams are fourth in yards per rush allowed. LAR’s future Hall of Fame LB Bobby Wagner is the best at his position still, per Pro Football Focus.

Los Angeles Rams CB Jalen Ramsey intercepts a pass intended for Atlanta Falcons WR Bryan Edwards at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.
Los Angeles Rams CB Jalen Ramsey intercepts a pass intended for Atlanta Falcons WR Bryan Edwards at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. (John McCoy/Getty Images)

The Rams’ pass defense has regressed significantly this season. But, they still have one of the best secondaries in the NFL featuring All-Pro CB Jalen Ramsey.

On top of that, Rodgers hasn’t found his go-to guy since Adams left or built any continuity with his young WR corp. This partially explains Green Bay’s average passing stats. The other part is Rodgers’ weirdness.

Finally …

LAR has taken ‘sharp’ action

The Packers were -9.5 on the look-ahead line the morning AFTER the Rams miraculously beat the Raiders on TNF. Green Bay’s price has dropped to the current number even though more than 80% of the action is on the Packers as of Monday morning, per Pregame.com. 

BET: Rams +7.5 (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to +7

The Los Angeles Rams’ odds at Green Bay Packers from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, December 19th at 9:00 a.m. ET.

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Written by Geoff Clark

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