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Shop around to “get the best of it” but we’re betting UNDER ATLANTA FALCONS TE KYLE PITTS 60.5 RECEIVING YARDS at PointsBet Sportsbook in the New Orleans Saints at Falcons game in Week 1.
The most important thing about player props, and all sports betting really, is finding the best number. OutKick actually offers tools to compare odds from DraftKings and PointsBet Sportsbooks.
That’s not just a plug but a sincere suggestion because sportsbooks have different prices. In fact, DraftKings Sportsbook set Pitts’ receiving yards prop at 55.5 but we can get 60.5 at PointsBet.
Demario Davis, Tyrann Mathieu Vs. Kyle Pitts
Let me be clear, this is not an anti-Pitts thing. This is a pro-New Orleans Saints defense thing. Sean Payton and Drew Brees got most of the credit for the Saints’ recent success. And, rightfully so.
But, NOLA’s defense is now the better unit. In fact, the Saints’ defense is fifth in expected points added per play and fourth in success rate since 2018. I power-ranked the Saints’ defense second, behind the Buffalo Bills entering this season.
Furthermore, the middle of NOLA’s defense is as good as they come. Saints LB Demario Davis was Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) eighth-, fifth- and first-ranked linebacker over the last three seasons.
Davis allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per route run last season and Pitts has a -11% advantage in his matchup with Davis, according to PFF. The Saints ranked seventh in fantasy points allowed per game to opposing tight ends last season.
Also, Davis has newly acquired three-time All-Pro S Tyrann Mathieu backing him up. Mathieu is one of the most underrated defensive players this generation.
The Honey Badger is a champion and pushes the Saints’ defense from fringe top-five to clear top-three. It’s not a massive difference on paper but it could win NOLA the NFC South.
I was a little nervous that Mathieu would miss Week 1 after leaving practice with a random illness. But, Mathieu check in Atlanta via Instagram Sunday morning and, if I’m reading the tea leaves, the Honey Badger is playing.
Atlanta’s Limited Offense
The dropoff year over year in Pitts’ quarterbacks is huge. Pitts went from catching balls thrown by a former MVP (Matt Ryan) to a guy who’s been a backup for the last two-and-a-half years (Marcus Mariota).
On top of that, the Saints’ pass rush could overwhelm Atlanta’s offensive line and get in Mariota’s face all day. If NOLA can just take away Pitts early in plays, he’ll go missing in the offense because Mariota will check down instead of throwing to Pitts in tight windows.
Finally, who else will NOLA’s sick defense key on? Pitts is an absolute stud and Falcons WR Calvin Ridley is suspended so the Saints will be fine leaving cornerbacks 1-on-1 vs. Atlanta’s wideouts.
Go to PointsBet Sportsbook and BET UNDER FALCONS KYLE PITTS 60.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110).
- A $110 bet on Under Pitts 60.5 receiving yards (-110) returns a $100 profit if NOLA’s defense holds Pitts to 60 or fewer receiving yards.
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
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