The market isn’t buying the New York Jets’ 5-3 record when they host the 6-1 Buffalo Bills at MetLife Stadium in Week 9 and neither should we.
This will be the first Bills-Jets meeting of the season and Buffalo has dominated this series over the last two years. The Bills have beaten the Jets in four straight meetings, three of them by double digits.
Not only is Buffalo the far better team but there are a ton of trends to support laying the points with the Bills at the Jets Sunday.
Betting Details (DraftKings)
- Moneyline: Bills (-625), Jets (+470)
- Against the spread (ATS): BILLS -12.5 (-110), Jets +12.5 (-110)
- Total (O/U) — 47 — O: -105, U: -115
The spread says it all
Any confusion about how much better Buffalo is than NY should be cleared up once seeing the betting line. Sportsbooks are saying the Bills should crush the Jets Sunday and the advanced stats back that up.
Buffalo is 1st in net expected points added per play (EPA/play), net success rate, and point differential. NY on the other hand is 18th in net EPA/play and 26th in net success rate.
Bills QB Josh Allen and WR Stefon Diggs might be the best QB-WR tandem in the NFL. Diggs torched the Jets in 2021 with 243 receiving yards and 2 TDs on 17 catches.
Furthermore, NY’s offense has taken significant injuries and the defense has faced either a backup or rookie quarterback in four of its five wins this season.
Jets rookie RB Breece Hall and three starting offensive linemen are on the injured reserve list. And NY’s defense is going against the odds-on favorite to win the 2022 NFL MVP Sunday in Allen.
The point that the sportsbooks are making with this line is …
Don’t be fooled by NY’s record
Sure, the Jets are two games above-.500 and currently 5th in the AFC postseason standings. But, NY won’t be in playoff contention for long if it keeps getting subpar play from starting QB Zach Wilson.
Out of 38 graded quarterbacks in the NFL, Pro Football Focus ranks Wilson 36th. He has the 2nd-worst EPA/play blended with completion percentage over expectation. Essentially Wilson isn’t throwing WRs open or making scoring plays.
It’s going to be harder for Wilson to move the chains against Buffalo’s lockdown defense. The Jets have 12 fewer 1st downs than their opponent this season.
The Green Bay Packers covered as 10.5-point underdogs last week thanks in part to a superstar TD pass from Aaron Rodgers to Packers WR Romeo Doubs.
Wilson doesn’t have the arm talent to make those kinds of throws and it would take a no-show from Buffalo’s defense for NY’s offense to have success Sunday.
On top of that …
‘The House’ is begging the public to bet on the Jets
Oddsmakers are hoping the double-digit spread in a divisional matchup between two teams with a winning record scares people away.
There’s still value in this number because double-digit favorites are 8-1 ATS vs. winning teams (+8.1 ATS margin) since 2017.
Also, teams with winning records are rarely this big of a home underdog this far into the season. Apparently, the sportsbooks are calling the Jets frauds.
Over the last five-plus seasons, double-digit favorites vs. teams with a winning record after Week 8 are 6-0 ATS with a +10.8 ATS margin.
Aside from a choke job last season at the Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo cover vs. bad teams. Since Allen’s breakout season of 2020, the Bills are 6-3-2 ATS as double-digit favorites with a +5.9 ATS margin.
BET: Bills -12.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to the -13.5
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