Best Bets for the NCAAF National Championship

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In the least surprising news of the NCAAF season, the Championship Game comes down to Alabama and Georgia. I suppose Georgia wasn’t the first choice of many, but you can pretty much pencil in Alabama every season to be at least in the college football playoffs. We have done pretty well with our picks in bowl games and the College Football Playoffs.

Alabama has not had the most consistent season, at least not by their standards. They were beaten by Texas A&M, which was kind of an embarrassing loss for them. After the loss, they reeled off five wins, most of them with relative ease. Then came the Auburn game that they outlasted the Tigers 24-22 in four overtimes. That was the game that almost made Alabama miss the College Football Playoffs altogether. Maybe they were looking ahead a bit because the next week they came and beat this Georgia team easily 41-24. Then, of course, they beat Cincinnati by three touchdowns last week.

Georgia had the best defense in the country all season. They made a good Michigan team look silly last week when they beat them 34-11. Everything Michigan threw at them didn’t work and Georgia coasted to the Championship game. Georgia only gave up three scores to an opponent once prior to the Alabama game. Then, they gave up the 41 points to Alabama. It took their first seven games combined for them to give up 40 points, so that speaks to Alabama’s offense.

Georgia is a great team, there is no question. They have an excellent defense, and they have a strong enough offense. They absolutely could be National Champions. But, you’re telling me that I get two weeks of prep from Nick Saban, a better offense, and an Alabama team that didn’t really struggle at all against this vaunted defense. I think people expect Georgia to rebound, but to me, if they could’ve beaten Alabama they would’ve and should’ve done it in the original game. Why let them win and get to the National Championship. They already had the opportunity to knock them out and they either can’t or didn’t want to. Neither of those is good for Georgia. Give me Alabama +3, and I’ll take them at +125 on the moneyline. I don’t think Alabama needs the points, I’m confident they win this game outright.

I don’t have a strong feeling on the total. I’d assume that people think if it is under, Georgia is the winner of the game. If the game goes over, I’d guess people assume Alabama is the winner. I think the line is pretty fair, but could see Alabama winning this game 28-14 or something similar and the game going under. I think it is the only way I’d look in this one, but most likely, I’ll pass on the total for the game.

Written by David Troy

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