Geoff Clark
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After spending most of 2022 in 1st-place atop the NL Central, the Milwaukee Brewers’ 2nd-half collapse allowed the St. Louis Cardinals to win the division and the Brew Crew missed the playoffs.
St. Louis was the only NL Central team to make the playoffs. The Cardinals were quickly ousted by the team that overtook the Brewers for the final NL Wild Card seed: Philadelphia Phillies.
The Chicago Cubs won three more games in 2022 than 2021 but didn’t have any real playoff aspirations since they were in the process of a rebuild.
Neither the Cincinnati Reds nor Pittsburgh Pirates were expected to compete and they didn’t. Cincy and Pittsburgh were in the basement of the NL Central both finishing 62-100.
Below, I’ll give an assessment of each NL Central team along with my pick to win the division.
NL Central Odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
St. Louis Cardinals
- 2022 record: 93-69, 1st place in the NL Central. Eliminated 2-0 in the 2022 NLWCS by the Phillies.
- World Series odds: +1600.
- NL Pennant: +750.
- NL Central: -125.
- To make the playoffs: Yes: -235, No: +200.
- 88.5 Regular-season wins: Over: -120, Under: +100.
Pitching is what keeps me away from season-long bets on the Cardinals. St. Louis starters were 26th in K/9, and 15th in BB/9 last season. While the Cardinals relievers were 29th in K/9 and 14th in BB/9.
The essence of pitching is striking out and not walking hitters. St. Louis pitchers “pitch to contact” and rely on defense behind them. It’s going to be tougher to pitch in 2023 with the new rule changes.
More of those balls hit into play will find holes with the banning of the shift. Baserunners will be in motion now that there is a rule limiting pick-off attempts.
However, the Cardinals’ defense and pitching should take a step back with the retirement of C Yadier Molina. He was a 9-time Gold Glove winner and Molina was known for how well he handled pitching staffs.
Also, the Cardinals’ bullpen could regress year over year with no offseason additions and the implementation of the pitch clock. Studies show that rest in-between pitches increases velocity for pitchers.
St. Louis’s best two relief pitchers — hard-throwing righties setup man Giovanny Gallegos and closer Ryan Helsley — like to take their time in-between pitches. The pitch clock both reduces velocity and helps baserunners.
For the record, I like the Cardinals to make the playoffs as a Wild Card team and understand why they are the favorite in the NL Central. St. Louis doesn’t have the starting pitching to go further than the NLDS, at best.
PASS ON CARDINALS FUTURES.
Milwaukee Brewers
- 2022 record: 86-76, 2nd place in the NL Central.
- World Series odds: +3500.
- NL Pennant: +1400.
- NL Central: +175.
- To make the playoffs: Yes: -110, No: -110.
- 85.5 Regular-season wins: Over: -105, Under: -115.
Milwaukee was the favorite to win the NL Central entering last season. The Brew Crew was in 1st-place after April 2022 with a 15-7 and were in 1st by 1.5 games on August 3.
It unraveled in Milwaukee because the Brewers weren’t elite in any phase of the game. Their starting rotation ERA ranked 12th, their lineup was 22nd in batting average and the bullpen was 17th in ERA.
The Brew Crew’s rotation is still the best in the NL Central. Corbin Burnes has the 2nd-best odds to win the 2023 NL Cy Young, Brandon Woodruff is 10th, Freddy Peralta has nasty stuff and Wade Miley is an good back-of-the-rotation guy.
I’m expecting a bounce-back season for Milwaukee’s lineup since its batting average was misleading. The Brewers were 11th in wRC+ and 10th in wOBA but 22nd in BABip. More of those balls hit into play will be base hits with the banning of the shift.
The key to Milwaukee winning the NL Central in 2023 is in the bullpen. The Brewers traded All-Star closer Josh Hader to the Padres last year because Devin Williams replaced him.
Williams is FanGraphs’ 5th power-ranked reliever in MLB and the Brew Crew added three relievers to their staff this offseason. So at least Milwaukee’s front office didn’t sit on their hands and hope things got better.
The new MLB schedule includes 46 interleague games (up from 20) and 12 fewer division games (76 down to 52). The Brewers were 15-5 vs. the AL last season and the Cardinals were 20 games above-.500 in NL Central play.
Best bet: Milwaukee Brewers (+175) to win the NL Central at DraftKings Sportsbook
Chicago Cubs
- 2022 record: 74-88, 3rd place in the NL Central.
- World Series odds: +9000.
- NL Pennant: +4500.
- NL Central: +650.
- To make the playoffs: Yes: +360, No: -450.
- 77.5 Regular-season wins: Over: -115, Under: -105.
There’s a reason that the Over for Chicago’s regular-season win total is more expensive than the Under. After getting rid of their 2016 championship core, the Cubs decided to invest in their ball club this winter.
Chicago now has an above-average payroll by adding six everyday players to the lineup, three relievers to the bullpen and starting RHP Jameson Taillon to the rotation.
The biggest name the Cubs signed in the offseason is SS Dansby Swanson who was a key member of the Atlanta Braves’ 2021 World Series team. They signed 2019 NL MVP CF Cody Bellinger and All-Star 1B Eric Hosmer.
Ultimately, the Cubs aren’t winning the NL Pennant or World Series and their price to win the NL Central is too low. I have Chicago power-ranked 8th in the NL so the only way to look is the regular-season win total.
LEAN Cubs OVER 77.5 wins
- The only thing keeping me away from making this an official wager is the idea of tying up my money for 6+ months for a -110 future.
Pittsburgh Pirates
- 2022 record: 62-100, 4th place in the NL Central.
- World Series odds: +25000.
- NL Pennant: +12000.
- NL Central: +3000.
- To make the playoffs: Yes: +1200, No: -2500.
- 68.5 Regular-season wins: Over: -105, Under: -115.
While I agree with the market that the Pirates should be better than last season, I’m not going to the window on any of their futures. Pittsburgh has the 3rd-smallest payroll in baseball and took a bunch of flyers on signing veterans this offseason.
The Pirates added RF Andrew McCutchen, DH Carlos Santana, and 1B Ji-Man Choi to the heart of their batting order. They also signed 43-year-old RHPs Rich Hill and Vince Velaquez to their starting rotation.
There is a high ceiling and low floor for all of these signees. Even if all pan out, it won’t be good enough for the Pirates to make the postseason.
Last season, Pittsburgh’s lineup ranked 27th in WAR, the rotation was 23rd in WAR and the bullpen ranked 24th in WAR, according to FanGraphs.
Perhaps Pirates SS Oneil Cruz and 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes take a step forward and their new veterans hitters have throwback seasons. But, I’m not putting my money on it.
PASS ON PIRATES FUTURES.
Cincinnati Reds
- 2022 record: 62-100, 4th place in the NL Central.
- World Series odds: +20000.
- NL Pennant: +10000.
- NL Central: +6000.
- To make the playoffs: Yes: +1800, No: -5000.
- 65.5 Regular-season wins: Over: -120, Under: +100.
Cincinnati is another bad team that didn’t much better this offseason. The Reds’ batters ranked 29th in WAR in 2022, the bullpen was 21st and the starting rotation was 22nd, according to FanGraphs.
They are 26th in payroll and are relying on the improvement of homegrown players. Good thing for Cincy, it has the 5th-ranked farm system in MLB, per ESPN.
Starting RHP Hunter Greene has one of the best fastballs in the sport. Reds LHP Nick Lodolo is a No. 7 draft pick with a ton of upside. However, Cincinnati’s bullpen was a bottom-five unit in 2022 and didn’t add any arms.
There is a world where the Reds win 70+ games but not one where they make the playoffs, win the NL Central, the pennant or World Series.
PASS ON REDS FUTURES.
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