Back Quality Starter Framber Valdez

Astros vs. Blue Jays, 7:07 ET

For the past two years, I've been the king of going 2-1 on baseball plays. I was putting out three plays and getting wins on those and then only one loss. I've been putting out two for a number of reasons, but I'm mostly going 1-1 which means that we are losing some juice since most of the plays are not plus money. Yesterday was one -105 loss and a win on the other game. Today we focus on the Astros vs. Blue Jays, two teams with World Series aspirations.

The Astros are looking like the team we have come to know for the past few years. Even with the loss of Justin Verlander and the injury to Jose Altuve, they are finding a stride and now are 10 games over .500. Still, they find themselves looking up at the Rangers who have come out of the gates to surprise everyone. There is a lot of time left in the season, and I personally still expect the Astros to win the division, but it is interesting at least seeing some competition from the AL West. Today, they send out their workhorse, one of the more reliable pitchers in baseball, Framber Valdez. I'm not going to go into a ton of detail about last year, but this guy's nickname should be Quality because all he does is post quality starts. He is on a streak of three straight right now and has just two games this season where he didn't post a quality start. His overall ERA is 2.16 and doesn't have any concerning or drastic splits. I do have some slight concerns as he has allowed 14 hits in 47 at-bats against the Blue Jays hitters.

You know what you'll get from Framber Valdez when he is on the mound. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)

The Blue Jays have quietly put themselves into a decent enough position to compete within the AL, but they are stuck in the AL East. Records are great this season for pretty much all of those teams, and only three can possibly make it. With the Yankees, Orioles, and, of course, Rays likely to be those teams, they really can't afford to lose series. If they win this one, they will go 3-1 in this series. Obviously, that would be their preference, but it is an uphill battle against Valdez. They have a puncher's chance with Jose Berrios on the mound though. He's been solid enough, but not quite as consistent as the team would hope. His game logs are kind of all over the place. Some games he racks up strikeouts, some games he walks a bunch of hitters, some games he has a ton of fly ball outs, others ground balls. It is very unique. So far, he has been very strong at home with a 2.22 ERA over 24.1 innings. He did face Houston earlier this season and allowed just two earned runs over seven innings. Houston hitters have been solid enough against Berrios.

I think the Astros are the team to beat in this one. Berrios is good, and Valdez hasn't been great against the Blue Jays. Most of my confidence in this game comes from the fact that Valdez has been so consistent. You can rely on him and in a game where you're only paying -120 for him to win it, I like it. I am going to hedge it a bit by taking the first five money line though so that we can get a push if they tie after five innings.

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