The Path to the 2013 BCS Title, Part One
Lots of time is spent debating which teams will play for the BCS title.
But in reality it isn't that complicated when you break down all the possible outcomes.
Here are this week's BCS standings.
Keep in mind that there are really just two factors to analyze -- a. the psychology of voters, i.e. how will a group of Harris Poll and coaches respond to different game outcomes and b. the computers.
It's a relatively simple formula, the humans make up 2/3rds of the voting and the computers make up a third. The computers don't vary that much. So what you really need to analyze more than anything else is the psychology of the voters.
The BCS is more psychology than it is math.
That's why each Wednesday at Outkick the Coverage, I'll tell you how many teams are still alive for the title and what would have to happen for them to end up in the BCS title game.
Right now there are ten teams that still have a shot at the BCS title.
So if you want to know what these ten teams need to have happen to win the BCS title just read along below.
The easiest two contestants to break down are Alabama and Oregon.
If these two teams win out, they will meet for the BCS title.
Period.
So that's where we'll begin.
1. Alabama
Plays for the BCS title if:
it wins every game remaining on its schedule.
2. Oregon
Plays for the BCS title if:
it wins every game remaining on its schedule.
3. Florida State
Plays for the BCS title if:
it wins every game remaining on its schedule and either Alabama or Oregon loses.
4. Missouri
Plays for the BCS title if:
it wins every game remaining on it schedule -- including a likely victory over Alabama in the SEC title game -- and either Florida State or Oregon loses.
This is the first really difficult call to make, would 13-0 Missouri get in over Florida State?
Oregon would be number one in this scenario and the real debate would come down to Florida State, likely the pollsters number two, and Missouri at three. Florida State is the highest ranked computer team. Missouri would figure to be number two in the computers in this scenario.
Given that Florida State would be ranked above Missouri in the computers, poll voters would have to leap Missouri over Florida State.
I don't believe that enough voters would do that.
So in order to play for the title Mizzou would need to beat Alabama and have either Florida State or Oregon lose.
5. Miami
Plays for the BCS title if:
it wins every game remaining on its schedule -- including two head-to-head wins over Florida State which would knock the Seminoles out of the title mix -- and then the Alabama/Missouri winner or Oregon would need to lose.
Believe it or not, Miami's in pretty good shape for the title race if the Hurricanes keep winning.
6. Baylor
Plays for the BCS title if:
It wins every game left on its schedule and four of the five teams in front of the Bears lose. (Keep in mind that either Alabama/Mizzou or Florida State/Miami would be guaranteed to lose). Which means that Baylor would need two of the top three winning teams to lose to advance to the BCS title game.
RIght now the computers really don't like Baylor. But if the Bears win out they would beat three teams ranked in the top 20 of the existing BCS. That would send their computer numbers surging and pollsters would consider Baylor's body of work to be better than Ohio States.
It wouldn't hurt that Vegas would have Baylor as a seven point favorite over the Buckeyes on a neutral field.
The Bears would end up ranked above Ohio State in th final BCS standings.
7. Ohio State
Plays for the BCS title if:
it wins every game left on its schedule and five of the six teams ranked in front of the Buckeyes lose. (Keep in mind that either Alabama/Mizzou or Florida State/Miami would be guaranteed to lose). Which means that Ohio State would need three of the top four surviving teams to lose in order to advance to the BCS title.
Ohio State has a lid on its head right now because of its schedule and the awful Big Ten.
When you look at Baylor vs. Ohio State, it's important to look at the computers as well as the polls. Worst case, Baylor is ranked behind Ohio State. But not by much. Then look at the computers. Baylor is going to surge in the computer polls over the final five games. Ohio State isn't going to move very much at all.
8. Texas Tech
Plays for the BCS title if:
it wins every game left on its schedule and six of the seven teams ranked in front of the Red Raiders lose. (Keep in mind that Tech would beat Baylor and that Alabama/Missouri and Florida State/Miami would knock out two other teams.) So what you're left with is the Red Raiders needing four of the remaining five teams ranked above them to lose.
Now, here's where things could get messy.
9. Beware the one-loss Alabama, Oregon, Florida State or Stanford team
These four one-loss teams could still be in the mix for a BCS title berth.
You can make a strong case for one of these four one-loss team advancing to the title game over undefeated Baylor, Ohio State, or Texas Tech.
Look at Stanford, for instance, are you telling me if the Cardinal run the table with wins over Oregon State, Oregon, and Notre Dame plus a Pac 12 title win, that a 12-1 Stanford wouldn't have a better resume than 12-0 Baylor Texas Tech or 13-0 Ohio State?
What if Florida State, for instance, lost to Miami by a point in the regular season, but came back to beat the Hurricanes convincingly in the ACC title game?
Beware these one-loss teams.
10. You want the ultimate darkhorse?
How about the Auburn Tigers?
Sitting at 6-1 right now, what would happen if the Tigers won out?
That would mean back-to-back wins over number one Alabama, and potentially number two or three Missouri.
I don't think it will happen, but 12-1 SEC champ Auburn's resume would be pretty sterling.