Outkick's Week 11 2016 College Football Picks

We had another really good week of gambling picks, going 8-5 -- which would have been 9-4 if Auburn's Pettway hadn't pulled up lame on a breakaway touchdown against Vandy -- and ran our season record to 63-49. That puts our win percentage at 56.25%. 

And we're going to keep on raising that win percentage this week. 

(By the way, I have currently been up for 36 straight hours with no sleep so if there are more typos or math errors than usual, that's why.)

This week we're going 15-0!

Let's get rich, kids. 

Penn State -6.5 at Indiana and the over 59.5

Do you know which team is playing among the best in the country right now that no one foresaw? Penn State. The Nittany Lions have scored 38, 62, and 41 in their last three games against teams other than Ohio State.  

James Franklin has gone from the hot seat to coaching genius in the space of a month. 

Indiana likes to score points too, so the over is a gimme. 

And Penn State is winning this game 42-28. 

Ole Miss at Texas A&M, the under 55

What happens when both teams lose their starting quarterbacks for the season in the same week?

The offenses fall apart. 

This game went from a guaranteed over to a guaranteed under as soon as news of Chad Kelly and Trevor Knight's injuries emerged. 

The Sadness Bowl goes under. 

Auburn at Georgia +10 and the over 48

Auburn has not won in Athens since 2005 and Georgia has won eight of the last ten meetings.

Sure, Georgia isn't very good, but the strange thing about rivalry games is sometimes that doesn't matter very much. 

I think Auburn wins this game 31-28, but that means you cover by a touchdown and hit the over by 11 points. 

That's living right! 

Illinois at Wisconsin, the under 39

What do we do when Wisconsin plays?

We bet the under. 

Bang. 

Nothing else needed here. 

Kentucky at Tennessee -13.5

In the past two years Tennessee has hung fifty or more on Kentucky. 

While it may seem crazy to bet on Tennessee to cover a two touchdown line against anyone this season, I think the Vols win this one big, 45-21. 

Why?

It's the perfect set up for a blowout. Kentucky is coming off a crushing loss at home and Tennessee has been through the mess of losing at South Carolina, the Jalen Hurd transfer, and all the slings and arrows of derision. Bu they've emerged on the other side and now know that if they win out they'll be in Atlanta.

They've got a second life.

And Tennessee knows that they just flat out don't lose to Kentucky.  

I think the Vols come out and dominate on Saturday. (Yes, even in the first quarter).  

South Carolina +11.5 at Florida and the under 37.5

The Gators shouldn't be favored by 11.5 over air right now because their offense is just flat out awful. This will be an extremely ugly game and someone will win 17-13. 

Go ahead and sprinkle a little money on South Carolina to win on the moneyline here because an outright Gamecock victory wouldn't shock me, but South Carolina +11.5 is our first blood bank guarantee of the week. (Yes, there are more coming.) 

LSU at Arkansas +7, the over 46

We know that Arkansas can't stop the run and we know that LSU can't throw. So figure on LSU running up and down the field on Arkansas. Meanwhile the LSU defense is going to be beaten up after that war against Alabama and how motivated do you think the Tigers are to really play this game?

Arkansas covers with ease and both teams score more points than you expect. 

LSU wins 28-24 and you hit the over and the Arkansas cover. 

California at Washington State, the over 83.5

In its last four Pac 12 games Cal has given up 47, 52, 45, and 66 points. 

And now they're going on the road to play Mike Leach. 

Hell, you know Washington State is scoring at least 50. That means all we need for Cal to score is 34.

Bang, the over hits with ease.  

USC at Washington +9

USC is playing like a top 15 team right now and I could write a ton about this game, but I'm so tired that I'll simply say this -- nine points is way too many to favor anyone in the Pac 12 by over USC. 

The Trojans keep it close until late in the fourth quarter.

They don't win, but they put a scare into the Huskies and cover the line with ease.  

Vandy +3.5 at Mizzou, the under 53

Here's my double blood bank guarantee of the week. I absolutely love the Commodores here +3.5 and I love the under too. Vandy hasn't given up more than 23 points to any SEC team this year. They've given up 10, 13, 20, 16, and 23.  

In fact, they just went on the road at Auburn and gave up 23.

That means SEC teams are averaging just 16.4 points against the Commodores. 

And you're telling me they're going to give up four touchdowns to Mizzou?

No.

Way. 

Get rich, kids, Vandy wins outright and the under comes nowhere near this number.

...

There you have it, we're going 15-0.

Now I'm headed to bed for some sleep.