NBA Posts Misleading Graphic About Ratings Growth

The NBA uploaded a graphic claiming that more than 87 million people in the United States have watched NBA games this season across NBC, Peacock, ESPN, Amazon Prime Video, and NBA TV. The league says this makes it the top-rated NBA season in 15 years, representing an 89 percent increase from last year.

At first glance, the graphic might seem to indicate major growth. However, a closer look shows that the data is presented in a misleading way.

Take a look:

The NBA cites a total number "of people" rather than standard viewership metrics. Traditional television ratings measure the average number of viewers over the duration of a broadcast, not the total number of people who tuned in at any point. 

Advertisers and networks rely on average viewership, which makes the claim of 87 million viewers largely meaningless.

The reported 89 percent year-over-year increase is also misleading. 

Last season, NBA games aired only on ESPN and TNT through the first two months. This season, games have aired on ESPN, NBC, Amazon Prime Video, and Peacock. NBC is a broadcast network with far greater reach than TNT, which is a cable channel. That difference alone naturally inflates exposure.

Nielsen also changed its measurement methodology this fall to a system known as Big Data + Panel, which has resulted in higher ratings for most live sports. Professional wrestling has been a notable exception, with both WWE and AEW posting declines under the new system.

The NBA has also failed to clearly explain how streaming audiences on Peacock and Prime Video are measured. That may explain why the league is emphasizing the total number of people watching rather than traditional ratings.

A follow-up article on NBA.com discussing the 89 percent increase does not include a single average viewership figure for this season.

The graphic raises a simple question: If the season is truly performing as well as advertised, why not present the ratings in the same way it always has?

Before the season, NBC executives publicly acknowledged that the NBA deal would be a "money loser" in the near term.

"All of these deals lose money discretely," NBCU executive Dave Pietrycha said, according to the Wall Street Journal.

NBC is betting that the NBA will eventually outperform the broader decline in scripted television and help drive long-term growth for Peacock. That is the rationale behind committing roughly $2.5 billion per year over the next 11 seasons. Put bluntly, we are skeptical.

Ultimately, the NBA and its fanboys are overly sensitive about ratings. There was a time when no one in the sports media covered the league objectively. In 2018, there was an industry-wide push by ESPN to convince viewers that the NBA would surpass the NFL in popularity by 2028. Since that time, the NBA has lost over 30% of its viewers while the NFL has recorded double-digit gains.

As one of the few outlets willing to report honestly on those declines, OutKick has drawn criticism. Bill Simmons and Ryen Russillo, before their breakup, repeatedly complained this past summer about OutKick, Clay Travis, and me for questioning the NBA’s popularity.

They were triggered.

Fortunately for the league, Simmons and the fanboys will accept the new graphic at face value and convince themselves it reflects reality.