Nate Silver Deems AOC Most Likely 2028 Democrat Presidential Nominee

Though it's only 2024, the search is on for the next face of the Democrat Party.

Sports commentator Stephen A. Smith continues to make headlines as a possible candidate, though his potential remains entirely media-driven at this point. Polls show there is virtually no demand for Smith among primary voters. Instead, recent polls show Senator Cory Booker gaining momentum as an early favorite for 2028. Meanwhile, betting odds continue to favor California Governor Gavin Newsom.

However, FiveThirtyEight founder and pollster Nate Silver doesn't buy any of those narratives. This week, Silver made his first prediction regarding the 2028 presidential election.

According to Silver, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the most likely candidate to represent the Democrat Party on the 2028 ballot.

WASHINGTON, DC - Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (L) (D-NY) greets Sen. Bernie Sanders (R) (I-VT) before the two spoke at a press conference outside the U.S. Capitol March 21, 2024.  (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

"In a video posted to his ‘Silver Bulletin’ website on Wednesday, Silver and political podcaster Galen Druke came up with draft picks for the Democratic Party’s next presidential nominee and settled on AOC being the strongest contender," Fox News Digital reported Thursday morning.

"My first pick of the first-round draft is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez," Druke said.

"F--- you! That was going to be my f------ first pick!," Silver responded, adding, "We both are on the AOC bus."

Silver says he'd give AOC about a "20% chance" to be the nominee, expressing relevant confidence four years out. 

He and Druke noted that Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders have drawn large crowds and plenty of press attention during their "Fight Oligarchy" tour in recent weeks.

"So that means that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has broad appeal across the Democratic Party and there’s a lot of people who could potentially get on board with her. But I think equally important is the fact that she has very fervent support," Druke said.

We aren't so sure.

After the November election, the polling firm Blueprint found that swing voters rejected Kamala Harris because her political and social views were too far leftward of the median voter. Ocasio-Cortez is even further to the left than Harris. 

AOC is an actual socialist. And unlike Harris, she is an ideologue who means what she says.

In theory, the Democrats need to establish a moderate candidate to compete with the GOP in 2028. Perhaps someone who understands the middle class and doesn't believe in open borders. 

That's not Ocasio-Cortez.

As I discussed with Stacy Washington on SiriusXM Wednesday, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is probably the party's strongest candidate in terms of a general election. However, he's Jewish and decent. Party leaders are not exactly fond of Jewish and decent people these days.

"Like, the media is kind of obsessed with her, and they’re going to follow her every move, which means she will be able to keep the attention on her throughout the primary process," Druke concluded.

"I agree with everything," Silver added. [S]he has this kind of progressive lane – probably not to herself, because she is younger and media savvy."