Marco Rubio Jumps Vance and Newsom As Favorite To Win 2028 Election

As of Wednesday morning, United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio is the favorite to win the 2028 presidential election on the prediction market Kalshi.

Rubio narrowly leads Vice President J.D. Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom. Rubio stands at 19 percent, compared to 18 percent for both Vance and Newsom.

Vance and Newsom have long been considered the leading candidates to represent their respective parties, which makes Rubio’s rise to the top notable.

President Donald Trump and other Republican Party figures have previously floated the possibility of a Republican ticket featuring Rubio as Vance’s running mate. It is uncertain whether the two would ultimately run against each other for the nomination.

Vance is often viewed as the more natural heir to Trump’s MAGA political movement. Rubio, however, has emerged as one of the most influential figures in Trump’s administration, increasing his national profile and favorability among certain voter blocs.

SiriusXM host Stacy Washington has said on multiple occasions that she is a supporter of both Vance and Rubio and believes Republican primary voters could face a difficult choice. Current prediction market pricing reflects that dynamic.

I will discuss this topic with Stacy on her show later Wednesday on SiriusXM Patriot. Listen here.

Some analysts argue Rubio could position himself as a more traditional or broadly acceptable Republican, potentially appealing to swing voters who have alternated between supporting and opposing Trump in recent election cycles.

Self-described independent Stephen A. Smith said this week on Fox News host Sean Hannity’s podcast "Hang Out" that he would vote for Rubio over most Democratic candidates.

"He’s an adult in the room," Smith said of Rubio. "There is no questioning his qualifications for the job."

On the Democratic side, Kalshi lists Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York as the second most likely Democrat to win in 2028, though at just 6 percent. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro follows at 4 percent. According to the prediction market, Newsom remains the clear Democratic frontrunner.

Here is the full top 10:

1. Marco Rubio, United States Secretary of State, Republican — 19 percent
2. Gavin Newsom, Governor of California, Democrat — 18 percent
3. J.D. Vance, Vice President of the United States, Republican — 18 percent
4. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, U.S. Representative from New York, Democrat — 6 percent
5. Josh Shapiro, Governor of Pennsylvania, Democrat — 4 percent,
6. Donald J. Trump, President of the United States, Republican — 3 percent
7. Jon Ossoff, U.S. Senator from Georgia, Democrat — 3 percent
8. J.B. Pritzker, Governor of Illinois, Democrat — 3 percent
9. Kamala Harris, former Vice President of the United States, Democrat — 3 percent
10. Pete Buttigieg, U.S. Secretary of Transportation, Democrat — 3 percent

Vote below on who you'd prefer as the 2029 Republican nominee as of today: