A Look At Stephen A.'s Chances In Hypothetical 2028 Election Against JD Vance

Stephen A. Smith says he is no longer dismissing the idea of running for president in 2028. And you shouldn't either. As we explained on Monday, Smith could be the exact type of useful idiot the Democrat Party is looking for in four years.

Currently, the betting site Kalshi gives Smith a 5 percent chance of earning the Democrat nomination. That's not bad for someone who made his name following around Allen Iverson and arguing about whether LeBron James is better than Michael Jordan.

Still, Smith's potential viability says more about the state of the Democrat Party than it does him. Other potential candidates for the party in 2028 include Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Wes Moore.

Not a single one of them solves the chief issue that ails the Democrat Party, which is its disconnect with ordinary, working Americans. Blue-collar voters matter, too. They really matter in terms of winning an election.

(Stephen A. Smith. Photo by Aaron M. Sprecher/Getty Images)

But while Smith's odds are currently competitive with the pack in terms of a potential primary, polling data suggests he is less viable in terms of a general election.

For example, Overton general election data found Smith trailing Vice President JD Vance by nine points in a hypothetical 2028 race. By comparison, Vance and Harris are polling at 39 percent each.

Imagine Smith on a debate stage with Vance. Debating about whether Kirk Cousins is a franchise quarterback with Ryan Clark and Mina Kimes is one thing. Debating policy with Vance is another. Ask Tim Walz.

Overton didn't test polling data to see how Smith would hypothetically fair against other potential GOP candidates. Granted, the market gives Vance a 44 percent chance of winning the nomination. 

Tulsi Gabbard and Donald Trump Sr. are tied for second, with a 10 percent chance each.

Look, only a fool would make a prediction three and a half years out. Yet the prediction here is that if Smith enters the race, he will lose badly. The most likely primary winners are Vance and Newsom. Bill it America First vs. Make America California. 

Still, it's nice to hear that Stephen A. is leaving the door open, as he put it, to consider running the most powerful country in the world.