Gavin Newsom's 2028 Odds Increase Amid LA Riots

California Governor Gavin Newsom's odds of winning the 2028 Democratic primaries have increased since the start of the anti-ICE riots in Los Angeles.

According to the odds aggregator Kalshia, Newsom is the current frontrunner with a 13% chance of victory, up three points from Saturday. Newsom has his highest betting odds since March, when he reached 17%.

Here's a look:

Via Kalshi.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pete Buttigieg are tied for second, at 10% each. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and ESPN analyst Stephen A. Smith round out the top five, at 7% and 6%, respectively.

The market gives Kamala Harris just a 5% chance and her flamboyant former running mate, Tim Walz, only 3%.

For the record, Newsom's market increase doesn't necessarily suggest the results of the LA riots have made him a more popular candidate among the general public. 

Though his tough-guy act while Los Angeles burns may play well among likely primary voters, his general election viability is contingent upon the opinions of swing state voters.

A CBS News/YouGov poll this week found that 54% of Americans support Trump's deportation policy, suggesting dissatisfaction with politicians who support protecting illegals--like Newsom.

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 08: Waymo cars burn during immigration raid protests on June 08, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. Tensions in the city remain high after the Trump administration called in the National Guard against the wishes of city leaders following two days of clashes with police during a series of immigration raids. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 08: Protestors stand atop a vandalized Waymo car during immigration raid protests on June 08, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. Tensions in the city remain high after the Trump administration called in the National Guard against the wishes of city leaders following two days of clashes with police during a series of immigration raids. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)

That said, the list of other likely Democratic candidates doesn't exactly scream secure borders or hard on crime, either.

Names like Newsom, AOC, and Buttigieg are also unlikely to mend the disconnect between the Democratic Party and young males, a reported point of emphasis for the party.

Truthfully, we can't find a single name on the list that doesn't fit into the beta or feminist category. According to Kalshia, here are some other candidates polling at least 3%: Gretchen Whitmer, Mark Cuban, Cory Booker, Wes Moore, Raphael Warnock, and Michelle Obama.

As I told Stacy Washigton on SiriusXM this week, Newsom is only the Democrats' best candidate, by default. The others are that weak.

Put simply, the value of "normal" remains underrated. And "normal" includes not defending illegals who are burning our cities while waving foreign flags.