Betting Markets Give J.D. Vance Early Edge Over Gavin Newsom In 2028 Race

For three straight presidential elections, overseas betting markets proved more reliable than the U.S. betting industry. Last November, no market was more accurate and cited than Polymarket.

On Thursday, Polymarket updated its look-ahead odds for the 2028 presidential election. As of publication, Vice President J.D. Vance is the betting favorite to be the next President of the United States at 28 percent. California Governor Gavin Newsom ranks second at 22 percent.

Following the newly predicted front-runners are Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 7 percent, Marco Rubio at 5 percent, and Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson at 4 percent.

Just over three years out, the market suggests moderate confidence that Vance and Newsom will be the respective Republican and Democratic candidates on the ballot in 2028.

For the GOP, Vance fits the bill as the natural successor to Donald Trump’s America First movement. Had Trump lost last November, and thank God he didn’t, perhaps the party would have shifted back toward a more traditional Republican. Instead, Trump is likely to remain the kingmaker and exert tremendous influence on the 2028 ticket.

In August, Trump said he sees Vance as his "most likely" political heir. The president implied he would be interested in a Vance–Rubio ticket.

"I think Marco is also somebody that maybe would get together with J.D. in some form," Trump said. "I also think we have incredible people, some of the people on the stage right here."

For reference, Polymarket lists Donald Trump as the third most likely Republican to win the 2028 election.

On the other hand, Newsom has seemingly distanced himself from other Democrats as the most discussed possible candidate ahead of 2028. However, recent history suggests Democratic primary voters will not ultimately decide the nominee.

For a refresher, voters have not had much say in the last three contests. Party leadership essentially installed Clinton and Biden over Bernie Sanders in 2016 and 2020, and they certainly installed Harris in 2024.

Will the party put its support behind Newsom, a straight white male who cannot run on identity politics? We think so. Here is why: the Democratic Party has convinced itself of the false narrative that Clinton and Harris lost because they were women. The party is so convinced the nation is racist, despite Obama’s two terms, it will likely talk itself into a white male.

Presumably, Vance would have an edge over Newsom in a hypothetical race. Just look at the exodus and the state of California. But we do not want to get too far ahead of ourselves.

Email me at robert.burack@outkick.com with dark-horse candidates worth monitoring.