Woke Director James Cameron's Latest 'Avatar' Movie Is Major Box Office Disappointment

Well, well, well. What have we here? 

It's been widely reported that Hollywood, the entertainment industry, and specifically the movie business, is in major turmoil. Through a series of unforced errors, the major film studios have seen their once-invincible properties and franchises decline, rapidly. The Marvel Cinematic Universe was a reliable factory for a decade, churning out hit after hit. 

"Star Wars" started its reboot with "The Force Awakens," which became a gigantic financial success. Disney animation had successful films like "Tangled" and "Frozen." And somehow, the biggest of them all was the "Avatar" franchise.

James Cameron's first entry was a box office sensation, capitalizing on the new 3-D movie trend with outstanding special effects and a gigantic scope and scale. The plot was derivative and mostly forgettable, with characters that virtually nobody could name even a few minutes after leaving the theater. Cameron has also frequently espoused left-wing politics, including in a recent interview where he said the United States is not a "sane" country compared to New Zealand.

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But when Disney bought Fox Studios and its IP, they made "Avatar" a major part of their band. "Avatar" was brought into Disney theme parks and they greenlit multiple sequels, hoping to capitalize on the success of the 2009 original. Just a few years ago, it seemed like their bet had paid off, in a big way. Fast-forward to 2026, though? And all of a sudden, yet another Hollywood property has shown signs of significant decline.

James Cameron attends the "Avatar: Fire And Ash" European Premiere on December 05, 2025, in Boulogne-Billancourt, France. (Photo by Pascal Le Segretain/Getty Images)

‘Avatar: Fire And Ash' Another Box Office Disappointment

The 2022 installment, "The Way of Water," was a gigantic hit. While it didn't quite reach the domestic heights of the original, it pulled in an impressive $688 million in the US, and $1.646 billion internationally. That $2.334 billion worldwide gross made it the third highest grossing film worldwide in Hollywood history. 

Even with a gigantic budget, it turned a massive profit. Estimates for the film's "break even" point vary wildly, with Cameron himself claiming it was $2 billion, and industry analysts saying it was closer to $1.5 billion. Assuming the analysts are right, that's an estimated $834 billion in profit. Before the value the film brought to streaming services, merchandise, or home video sales.

In a post-COVID theatrical world, "Way of Water" seemed to show that the demand for "Avatar" was still strong. And the results for "Fire and Ash" have now shown that demand may have been short-lived or undermined. 

With its theatrical run already petering out, "Fire and Ash" has grossed $1.378 billion, quite literally close to a billion dollars less than its predecessor. That's a remarkable decline, and it looks even worse after adjusting for inflation. Already, that 2022 gross for "Way of Water" would be roughly $2.58 billion today. While "Fire and Ash" is still playing, it's currently roughly $1.2 billion behind the previous installment, adjusted for inflation. 

There's no two ways about it. For Disney, that's a disaster. 

Break-even points for the new movie again differ, with some estimating it's in the $1.2-1.3 billion range, and some suggesting it's higher at around $1.5-1.6 billion. Assuming the lower range is accurate, the film is going to turn a profit, especially accounting for all the ancillary income it brings in. But this is a dramatic, gigantic decline in fan interest from one film to another. And that's with only about three years between release dates. 

Obviously, "Fire and Ash" is far from a "Snow White"-style box office bomb, but make no mistake, Disney certainly would have hoped and expected that this latest movie would be far, far closer to the $2 billion mark than it is. While the first two films ranked number one and number three in worldwide box office history, this one is 19th. Heck, it just passed "The Super Mario Bros. Movie." 

When films disappoint, many Hollywood promoters say it's due to a post-COVID universe, that we can't compare attendance from pre-2020 to today. But "Way of Water" came out in 2022. That excuse won't work here. 

Did Cameron's political views influence this outcome? Almost certainly not. But it's a sign that his repetitive plots, lack of originality, arrogance and hubris have finally come back to bite him. Couldn't happen to a more deserving director.