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ALCS Best Bets: Red Sox-Astros Game 1

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We have the Championship Series set. The Red Sox and Astros take on each other while the Dodgers barely eclipsed the Giants to take on the Braves. Tonight, we get the opening game between the AL teams. Let’s see what we can play for the series, and what we can play for tonight’s game.

I’ll start by saying, I think the Astros win this series. They are a solid team, and yes, they cheated, get over it. I’m not an Astros fan, but everyone is doing something to get a competitive advantage in one way or another. If your team could’ve, they would’ve taken the opportunity as well. It isn’t about integrity, the players still had to hit the ball. There have been pitchers who’ve said what was coming and the opposition still missed. It happens. I don’t excuse it, but it is time to move on. Besides that, the Red Sox also had some questionable people or things going on. Anyway, I like the Astros to be up 2-1 after three games. I don’t expect them to win all of them, but they should be able to win at least two of their first three. It is a small +125. I’m going to also play the Astros to win 4-2 at +400. I could see them winning in five, too. The Astros won the season series five games to two.

Tonight, Chris Sale takes on Framber Valdez. Sale was really good in the first few starts in his return from injury, but his last few outings have left a lot to be desired. Against the Rays in the division series, he allowed five earned runs in just one inning of work. The Red Sox came back to win the game, but that’s beside the point. On the road, Sale has an ERA of 4.61, but he does have a night game ERA of just 2.84. Over his career, Astros hitters are batting .257 against him, so there is a bit of success. Framber Valdez has a home ERA of 3.45, maybe they should’ve saved him for Fenway where he has a 2.88 road ERA. He threw against the Red Sox twice this year and allowed just two earned runs over 14.1 innings. He basically had two identical back-to-back starts against the Red Sox this year. They were both seven innings, five hits allowed, and just one earned run. It was the bottom half of the order that did the scoring on him.

I like the Astros to win tonight and will play the somewhat pricey moneyline of -144.

Written by David Troy

David is a marketing professional and former adjunct professor from Chicago, IL, husband, and father. He is an avid sports lover that has turned his focus to sports betting after originally developing a love for risk, statistics, and gambling from the Texas Hold'em Poker boom. He loves interacting with people and talking about pop culture, and obviously sports. When he isn't watching sports, he's probably coaching his kids, drinking tequila, or watching movies and tv. David may not always be right, but he will give you reasons why he is doing what he does.

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