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Now that I’m finally in the black in my MLB betting season, I’m sure it’ll come crashing down Wednesday. Whenever I say stuff like “I’m 4-1 so far this week” is when I usually lose. Also, it appears as though I’ve jinxed the Cleveland Guardians after picking them to win the World Series preseason.
After a 2-1 effort Tuesday, my 2023 MLB record improved to 40-37 and my balance is +0.3 units (u). I’m back Wednesday with a gambling trifecta in baseball for the Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres, Boston Red Sox at the Guardians, and New York Mets at Atlanta Braves tilts.
MLB Wednesday Winning Wagers
- Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
Seattle Mariners (30-30) at San Diego Padres (28-33)
- First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET.
- Ballpark: Petco Park.
Both of the starters in Mariners-Padres Wednesday are awesome but I’m a bigger fan of Seattle’s guy. The Mariners give RHP George Kirby (5-4, 3.04 ERA) the ball Wednesday to face Padres RHP Michael Wacha (5-2, 3.48 ERA).
After two straight losses, Kirby pitched 8-scoreless innings in Seattle’s 1-0 win over the NY Yankees last Wednesday. Kirby has a career 2.02 ERA and an 8.60 K/BB rate on six days of rest, which are his personal bests of any rest split.
Kirby is 7-4 on the road for his short career (6-5 record at home) with a 3.09 road ERA (3.43 home ERA), 1.14 road WHIP (1.16 home WHIP), and just 6 HRs allowed (14 HRs allowed at home).
The same point about the starters could be made about both clubs’ bullpens. According to FanGraphs, Seattle’s bullpen ranks better than San Diego’s in FIP (“fielding independent pitching”), WAR, HR/9 rate, K-BB%.
Finally, there’s suspicious “reverse line movement” in the betting market. San Diego’s moneyline opened somewhere around -120. Per Pregame.com, roughly 70% of the action is on the Padres but they are getting cheaper.
Let’s follow the sketchy line movement and …
BET 1u on the Seattle Mariners (+100) moneyline at DraftKings
Boston Red Sox (31-30) at Cleveland Guardians (27-33)
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET.
- Ballpark: Progressive Field.
Speaking of “following line movement,” that’s what I’m doing in Red Sox-Guardians Wednesday. Boston beat Cleveland 5-4 in the series opener Tuesday.
But, it was the Guardians’ 1st home game after a 7-game road trip. Typically, teams struggle in their 1st game back from a road stand.
The Red Sox send out RHP Kutter Crawford (1-2, 3.48 ERA) Wednesday, and the Guardians counter with rookie RHP Tanner Bibee (1-1, 3.20 ERA).
Cleveland’s farm system is a pitching factory and the MLB betting sharps recognize that. Bibee is the 5th-ranked prospect in the Guardians’ organization, according to Statcast.
The bets are nearly split in Red Sox-Guardians, per VSIN. But, Cleveland’s moneyline opened at -115 and is up to the current number. This is a big line movement considering the two-way betting action.
Honestly, the line movement and blind-faith in Cleveland’s pitching staff is the reason why I’ll …
BET 1.35u on Cleveland Guardians (-135) moneyline at DraftKings
New York Mets (30-31) at Atlanta Braves (36-24)
- First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET.
- Ballpark: Truist Park.
Atlanta rallied back from an early 4-1 deficit to beat NYM 6-4 in their series opener Monday. Not only do the Braves have a winning record vs. the Mets in three consecutive years but Atlanta is in better form currently.
So far in June, the Braves’ hitters are 2nd in both wRC+ (137) and wOBA (.379) and 5th in WAR (1.2), per FanGraphs. Whereas NYM’s lineup ranks 28th in wRC+ (53) and 29th in both WAR (-0.4) and wOBA (.240) in June.
Both squads have veteran starters on the mound Wednesday. Max Scherzer (5-2, 3.21 ERA) is on the bump for the Mets and Charlie Morton (5-6, 3.62 ERA) takes the ball for the Braves.
Scherzer is the bigger name with the better career but Morton is pitching better this season. Morton is 19th in FanGraphs’ Stuff+ metric and Scherzer is 54th for MLB starters with at least 30 IP. Plus, Morton has a better FIP than Scherzer, which is more predictive than ERA.
Furthermore, Atlanta has a much better bullpen. The Braves’ relievers rank 4th in FIP (3.73) and 5th in WAR (2.3), per FanGraphs. While NYM’s bullpen ranks 25th in FIP (4.47) and 26th in WAR (0.3).
Lastly, there’s sharp line movement headed toward Atlanta in the betting market. The Braves opened at -120, according to Pregame.com, and have been steamed up to the current odds despite split betting action.
BET 1.3u on Atlanta Braves (-130) moneyline at DraftKings
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