Geoff Clark
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Spring Training in underway and it’s time to start placing some MLB 2023 future bets. The 1st team I’m eyeing in the betting market is the 2022 AL Central champion Cleveland Guardians.
Cleveland finished 92-70, winning the Central by 11 games before getting eliminated by the New York Yankees in the AL Division Series, 3-2.
The Guardians have the two most important things when I’m looking to back an MLB team in the future markets: A deep farm system and pitching.
More importantly, the Guardians have gone Over their regular-season win total in seven of the 10 seasons Terry Francona has been manager.
Cleveland Guardians’ Futures
(As of Saturday, February 25th)
- Regular Season Wins — 86.5 — Over: -120, Under: +100
- Playoffs: Yes: -135, No: +1115
- AL Central: +135
- AL Pennant: +1100
- World Series: +2200
Guardians’ regular-season win total & playoff odds
Again, since I like backing teams with strong farm systems and pitching staffs, the only way to look is OVER Cleveland’s regular-season win total.
The Guardians have seven top-100 MLB prospects, three of which are pitchers. They have the 2nd-best farm system in MLB, according to The Athletic, and 3rd-best, per ESPN.
Cleveland’s bullpen ranked 8th or better in ERA, WHIP, BB/9, K/9, and HR/9 and was 2nd in WAR following the All-Star break last season, per FanGraphs. Five Guardians relievers had a 2.69 ERA or better.
That said, I don’t like paying juice for season-long futures. So personally, I’ll pass but, publicly, I’ll recommend betting GUARDIANS OVER 86.5 REGULAR-SEASON WINS (-120).
The same goes for Cleveland’s odds to “make the playoffs” at -135. It’s the right way to bet it but I’m so high on the Guardians I’d rather bet futures with heavier payouts.
Cleveland to win the AL Central (+135)
The Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers should be basement dwellers in 2023. Cleveland has much better pitching staffs and farm systems than the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins.
The Guardians are underrated because they don’t have big names in their lineup outside of All-Star 3B Jose Ramirez. He is one of the best positional players in baseball and AL MVP sleeper candidate.
But, Cleveland’s lineup has a good balance of left, right, and switch hitters. The Guardians added slugger Josh Bell who is the 2nd-best power ranked hitter in their lineup, per FanGraphs.
Bell averages 116 wRC+ for his career with a .345 wOBA and should get a lot of RBI opportunities in Cleveland. Bell hit 37 home runs and 116 RBI as a 2019 NL All-Star. No one cared because he played for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
MLB banning the shift will benefit a Cleveland lineup that led baseball in contact rate and K-rate last year. Those balls hit into shifts in 2022 will find daylight in 2023.
Furthermore, the bases are bigger and there’s a new rule limiting pitchers’ pick-off attempts. This helps a Cleveland team that was 3rd in stolen bases last season.
The Guardians are lacking in sluggers but make up for it with contact hitting, strategy and smart base-running. I’m buying stock in Cleveland’s lineup and the pitching staff is one of baseball’s best.
BET Cleveland Guardians to win the AL Central (+135) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Guardians to win the 2023 World Series (+2200)
Cleveland ace Shane Bieber is a 2022 AL Cy Young award winner and bounced back from an injury-riddled 2021 last season. Bieber went 13-8 with a 2.88 ERA with exactly 200 innings pitched (IP).
Bieber and RHP Triston McKenzie are the 12th- and 17th power ranked starters in the MLB, per FanGraphs. Cleveland’s 3rd starter — RHP Cal Quantrill — led the Guardians with 15 wins in 2022.
What makes the Guardians a legit title contender is their starting rotation. Their depth and relief pitching will help them in the regular season but you need elite starters in October.
The Guardians won the AL Central by 11 games in 2022 despite ranking 14th in starting pitching WAR. They stunk in 2021 as well — 21st in WAR — however were top-five from 2017-2020.
If Cleveland gets anything out of No. 4 and 5 starters Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac than it should return to 2017-20 form. Plesac is the elder statesman on Cleveland’s pitching staff at 28 so there is a ton of potential.
I’m only going to bet the Guardians to win the World Series. Obviously, I endorse a bet for Cleveland to win the AL Pennant but I’m chasing the 22-1 payout.
BET Cleveland Guardians to win the World Series (+2200)
Cleveland Guardians RHP Triston McKenzie to win 2023 AL Cy Young (+3000)
McKenzie is the youngest starter on Cleveland’s staff and a 2015 1st-round draft pick with elite stuff. Last season, McKenzie had career bests in HR/9, BB/9, FIP, and swinging-strike-rate.
He was 11-11 in 2022 but McKenzie had a sub-3.00 ERA and the best WHIP for any Guardians starter. Per Statcast, McKenzie 4-seam fastball was one of the most effective pitches in MLB with a -17 run value.
McKenzie turned it on down the stretch last season and was 2nd in the AL for WAR post-All-Star break. He improved his exit velocity, launch angle and chase rate in 2022.
The bottom line is FanGraph power rank McKenzie as a top-20 pitcher in MLB but he is tied for the 16th-best odds to win the AL Cy Young.
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