3 Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City TNF Player Props

It’s impossible for me to pick a side in the Los Angeles Chargers (1-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) Week 2 Thursday Night Football in Arrowhead Stadium. But, that doesn’t mean I won’t have action on Chargers-Chiefs Thursday.

For the record, I lean Chiefs -4 (-110) because Patrick Mahomes put the fear of god into me when he torched the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1. Mahomes completed 76.% of his passes (30-for-39) with 5 touchdowns and a 144.2 QB Rating vs. the Cardinals. So much for no Tyreek Hill.

That said, I’m taking a few player props in Chargers-Chiefs. You can also shop for your own player, game and team props with our new “Prop Bet Finder” tool. Below, I’ll run through my favorite player props in order of favorite to least favorite bets.

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. (Norm Hall/Getty Images)

Patrick Mahomes OVER 16.5 rushing yards (-130)

One of my favorite football props to bet is the Over for the quarterback that’s perceived to be less athletic. The idea is the less mobile quarterback says, “Oh, I can run too.”

In this case, Justin Herbert is considered one of the best athletes at the position and Mahomes’ mobility is a little slept on.

Furthermore, Mahomes averages 18.7 rushing yards per game (Y/G) over his career and Herbert averages 16.3 Y/G. On top of that, Mahomes has rushed for at least 21 yards in six of his seven starts vs. the Chargers, including five consecutive meetings.

Also, L.A.’s pass-rush looked dominant in Week 1 vs. the Las Vegas Raiders. Mahomes’ head will be on a swivel Thursday. He’ll be willing to use his legs when the Chargers drop into man coverage and L.A.’s pass rushers win their matchups.

Moreover, Chiefs PK Harrison Butker will miss Thursday’s Chargers-Chiefs matchup. This tells me K.C.’s offense will be trickier since the Chiefs are less likely to kick field goals. Perhaps Mahomes does a play-action, naked bootleg on a 3rd- or 4th-and-short.

Lastly, Mahomes’ OVER (-130) on his rushing prop being more expensive than his UNDER (+100) suggests which is the sharper bet.

BET Chiefs QB PATRICK MAHOMES OVER 16.5 RUSHING YARDS (-130) at DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • A $130 bet on Patrick Mahomes OVER 16.5 rushing yards (-130) returns a $100 profit if Mahomes gains at least 17 yards on the ground.
Kansas City Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco celebrates after scoring a TD against the Arizona Cardinals. (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco Anytime TD Scorer (+360)

Note the chunky payout and just SPRINKLE on Kansas City Chiefs rookie RB Isiah Pacheco‘s anytime touchdown prop (+360) at DraftKings Sportsbook.

But, Pacheco looked like the player in Week 1 everyone raved about this offseason. Pacheco led K.C. in rushing (12 rushes for 62 yards), redzone touches and added a rushing touchdown.

Also, L.A. had one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL last season. The Chargers’ defense ranked 30th in rushing expected points added per play (EPA/play) and dead-last in rushing success rate.

L.A.’s rush defense graded out 20th in rushing EPA/play and 22nd in rushing success rate last week vs. Vegas’ poor offensive line.

On top of that, K.C.’s offensive line has the biggest Week 2 mismatch vs. L.A.’s defensive line, according to Pro Football Focus. This actually supports both of my Pacheco and Mahomes prop bets.

Finally, Pacheco could face light boxes vs. L.A.’s defense because it might overcompensate for Mahomes’ aerial attack.

  • A $50 “sprinkle” on Pacheco’s anytime touchdown prop (+360) at DraftKings Sportsbook returns a $180 profit if he hits paydirt.
Los Angeles Chargers RB Austin Ekeler catches at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Chris Williams/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Chargers RB Austin Ekeler OVER 36.5 receiving yards (-130)

L.A. ruled No. 1 WR Keenan Allen out for Thursday’s game with the Chiefs and those targets have to go somewhere. Chargers RB Austin Ekeler had the third-most targets in L.A.’s offense last season and ranked fifth in Football Outsiders’ receiving DYAR for running backs.

Furthermore, Ekeler has gone Over 36.5 receiving yards in 20 of his 38 career starts and four of his last seven games vs. the Chiefs.

In addition, K.C.’s defense allowed the fourth-most receptions vs. opposing running backs in 2021 and the third-most receiving yards. Also, the Chiefs could allow Herbert to check down to his running backs in order to prevent a bomb to WR Mike Williams.

Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET OVER EKELER 36.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-130).

  • A $130 bet on Over 36.5 Ekeler receiving yards returns a $100 profit if gains 37 or more yards through the air.

FOLLOW GEOFF ON TWITTER: @Geoffery_Clark

Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.


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FOLLOW GEOFF ON TWITTER: @Geoffery_Clark

Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.


PointsBet Sportsbook users can make their first bets risk-free up to $2,000. If the bet loses, PointsBet will refund you in site credit. New users can lock in this offer NOW by clicking this link.

New DraftKings users can get up to a $1,000 deposit bonus and receive a 20% first deposit match up to $1,000 when they sign up. New users can lock in this offer NOW by clicking this link.

Written by Geoff Clark

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