Geoff Clark
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The 7-seed Los Angeles Lakers (3-2) can advance to the Western Conference Semifinals with a series-clinching victory over the Memphis Grizzlies (2-3) Friday at home in Game 6.
Memphis kept its season alive with a 116-99 blowout victory in Game 5 at home. Grizzlies guards Desmond Bane and Ja Morant scored a combined 64 points on 25-for-47 shooting with 20 rebounds and 12 assists.
Since I’ve banned betting on both teams, I cashed an Under 222 ticket for Grizzlies-Lakers Wednesday. But, I’m firing up one of the best NBA playoff handicapping angles: The zig-zag theory
This is when you bet the opposite of what happened in the previous game. Game 6’s total shrunk to 220 after opening at 222 because the Under is a fake sharp bet.
Grizzlies at Lakers odds, Game 6 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Tip-off: 10:30 p.m. ET.
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.
Game 6 of Grizzlies-Lakers is your quintessential Pros vs. Joe’s game. The pros will be on the Under and the public is backing the Over. All of my Game 5 analysis for the total could apply to Game 6 as well.
My Under cashing in Game 6 was lucky AF. That game was trending Over the total for three quarters but both teams took their feet off the gas because it was a blowout.
Furthermore, LAL opted to save themselves for a possible close-out Game 6 at home. Memphis didn’t need to push the pace because the Lakers threw in the towel.
Part of the reason why I went Under in Game 5 was because of how tenacious the Grizzlies’ defense is at home. Memphis’s defensive rating dropped from 1st at home during the NBA regular season to 8th on the road.
Also, LAL has been gifted freebies by the officials for months now. Well, the assigned officiating crew for Grizzlies-Lakers Game 6 has a combined 141-117 Over/Under (O/U) this season, which is 54.7% to the Over.
Desperation leads to a faster pace
Both teams like to get out in transition. Granted, that’s less likely to happen in a Game 6. But, if one of these teams gets down double digits, I could see the tempo increasing.
Per CleaningTheGlass.com, LAL has the highest fastbreak frequency this postseason and Memphis ranks 7th. The Lakers’ defensive efficiency in transition ranks 18th in these playoffs (including the four play-in teams) and the Grizzlies are 16th.
I think all the stars play well in this elimination game. LeBron James is pissed at Grizzlies wing Dillon Brooks. Memphis defensive big Jaren Jackson Jr. cannot check Anthony Davis if AD is being aggressive.
The Lakers have no one that can stay in front of Ja and Bane has been abusing LAL in the last two games. Morant is averaging 28.3 points per game (PPG) in this series on 45.8% 3-point shooting and Bane is putting up 25.2 PPG.
BET: OVER 220 in Game 6 of Memphis vs. LAL, up to 221
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