Yankees Will Put Guardians’ Season On The Brink With Game 2 Win

The New York Yankees handled business with a 4-1 victory in Game 1 of their American League Division Series with the Cleveland Guardians on Tuesday. Cleveland hopes to even the ALDS when it meets N.Y. in Game 2 at Yankee Stadium on Wednesday.

But, that’s not going to happen because the Guardians can’t hit left-handed pitching and Yankees LHP Nestor Cortes (12-4, 2.44 ERA) is undervalued by the market despite pitching in the All-Star Game this summer.

Betting Details (DraftKings)

BET: Yankees (-140), up to (-150)

Yankees’ LHP Nestor Cortes (Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

Cleveland’s lineup is 27th in both wRC+ and wOBA, dead-last in ISO, 21st in BB/K rate and 28th in hard-hit rate vs. left-handed pitching, per FanGraphs. The Guardians are scoring just 3.86 runs per nine against lefties while the Yankees are scoring 4.96 runs per nine vs. righties.

Also, Cortes has better advanced pitching numbers than Cleveland RHP Shane Bieber (13-8, 2.88 ERA), both on the season and against their ALDS opponent.

According to Statcast, Cortes’ expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line and K-rate grades higher than Bieber’s.

The Yankees are 2-0 straight up (SU) vs. the Guardians in Cortes’ starts this season with a 5.50-2.50 average final margin. Cortes has a 14/2 K/BB rate in 12 1/3 innings pitched in those outings.

Whereas the Yankees have raked Bieber in their four all-time head-to-head meetings. Bieber has allowed 17 earned runs in 20 1/3 career innings pitched vs. N.Y. with five home runs allowed.

Furthermore, Cortes has a .184/.241/.315 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line against the Guardians while Bieber has a .237/.354/.507 expected slash line vs. the Yankees, per Statcast.

Finally, the Yankees are 8-2 SU in Cortes starts as -150 ML favorites or greater. N.Y. has a +2.8 margin of victory (MoV) and a +41.9% return on investment (ROI) in those contests. The Yankees are 12-3 SU with a +2.1 MoV and +24.7% ROI at home with Cortes on the bump.

BET the NEW YORK YANKEES (-140) at DraftKings Sportsbook. I’d play N.Y.’s ML all the way up to -150.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, Oct. 12 at 1:30 p.m. ET

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Written by Geoff Clark

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