Geoff Clark
Videos by OutKick
I’ve taken a few days off from betting on the MLB for no other reason to focus on the NBA playoffs. But, I’m back at it Friday because there’s a stack card and I want to add some juice to the end of my work week.
Through April 20th, my MLB betting record sits at 22-17 with a +9.4% return on investment (ROI). My two looks in the MLB Friday are for the Blue Jays-Yankees and Cardinals-Mariners matchups.
Toronto Blue Jays (11-8) at New York Yankees (12-7), 7:05 p.m. ET
- Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Yankees still haven’t lost a series this season. NYY split a 4-game series this past weekend and beat the LA Angels 9-3 in the rubber-match of their 3-game set Thursday.
Toronto has won six of the past 10 games including a 2-1 series win over the 1st-place Tampa Bay Rays. The Blue Jays lost 8-1 at the Houston Astros in the rubber-match of their 3-game set Wednesday.
Starting RHP Domingo German (1-1, 3.86 ERA) gets the nod for the Yankees Friday while LHP Yusei Kikuchi (2-0, 4.70 ERA) is on the hill for the Blue Jays.
German pitching peripherals suggest he could have a solid 2023. Per Statcast, German is in the 90th-percentile of K%, 92nd-percentile in whiff rate and his 3.55 FIP (“fielding independent pitching”) is lower than his ERA.
Kikuchi is in the 9th-percentile in exit velocity, 15th-percentile in hard-hit rate, and 24th in barrel rate, according to Statcast. His 5.95 FIP is higher than his ERA and FIP is more predictive than ERA.
More importantly, the Yankees have much better relief pitching. NYY’s bullpen is 4th in both FIP and K-BB% and 7th in HR/9 rate. Whereas Toronto’s bullpen is 21st in HR/9 rate and 18th in FIP.
Finally, there is sharp line movement headed in NYY’s direction. The Yankees opened as slight -115 favorites but they are up -135 at DraftKings.
MLB Bet #1: Yankees (-135) moneyline at DraftKings, up to -140
St. Louis Cardinals (8-11) at Seattle Mariners (8-11), 10:10 p.m. ET
- Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Both teams are off to a bumpy start to their 2021 campaigns. St. Louis is 5-5 over the last 10 games and avoided a 3-game sweep by the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 14-5 win Wednesday.
Seattle is just 4-6 in the last 10 games with a 4-game winning streak bookended by two 3-game losing skids including a 3-game sweep at home by the Milwaukee Brewers earlier this week.
The Mariners start RHP George Kirby (1-1, 3.78 ERA) to face Cardinals LHP Steven Matz (0-2, 6.48 ERA) Friday. Both are 5th starters and each have pitched like “end-of-the-rotation” guys so the starting pitching duel is a wash.
St. Louis’s lineup is better vs. right-handed pitching than Seattle’s vs. lefties in wRC+ (110-76), wOBA (.336-.272), BB/K rate (0.51-0.30), and hard-hit rate (34.8-33.3%), according to FanGraphs.
Also, the Cardinals have a healthy edge over the Mariners in relief pitching. St. Louis’s bullpen is 2nd in both FIP and K-BB% while Seattle’s bullpen is 11th in FIP and 25th in K-BB%.
Finally, this is a Pros vs. Joe’s game. Per Pregame.com, slightly more cash in the consensus market is on the Cardinals and more bets are on the Mariners. Typically, you want to follow the money when it’s counter to the public.
MLB Bet #2: Cardinals (+110) moneyline at DraftKings, down to pick ’em
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