Geoff Clark
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The betting market isn’t budging on the Boston Celtics (3-2) as they head to Wells Fargo Center Thursday for Game 6 of the 2023 Eastern Conference Semifinals vs. the Philadelphia 76ers (3-2).
Boston opened at -1.5 and is at -2.5 despite having its back against the wall in a must-win on the road. The 76ers beat the brakes off the Celtics 115-103 in Game 5 in Boston Tuesday to take the series lead.
Joel Embiid scored a team-high 33 points and played all-world defense Tuesday. Sixers SG Tyrese Maxey stepped up by scoring 30 points on 10-of-21 shooting (6-of-12 from behind the arc).
Jayson Tatum put up a clunky 36 points on 11-of-27 shooting but something is off with Jaylen Brown. He scored 24 points on only 16 shots?! Point blank, Boston needs more out of Brown for any chance of making the finals.
Celtics At 76ers Game 6 odds
- Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Again, the betting market’s confidence in the Celtics hasn’t shaken. According to VSIN, nearly 70% of the money at DraftKings Sportsbook is on Boston as of Wednesday night.
But, I’ve said consistently that the Celtics are overrated. Boston lacks a true point guard to get Tatum and Brown easy looks. The Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla is in over his head and their defense has too many brain farts.
According to CleaningTheGlass.com, Boston ranks 14th out of 20 playoff teams, which includes the play-in teams, for non-garbage time defensive efficiency.
Boston was down 3-2 in the 2022 Eastern Conference Semifinals vs. the Milwaukee Bucks as well. The Celtics lost Game 5 to the Bucks at home, went into Milwaukee and stole Game 6 then hammered the Bucks at home in Game 7.
However, the Sixers are healthier and play better 3-point defense than last year’s Bucks. Remember, Milwaukee is missing SF Khris Middleton for that series vs. the Celtics. Philly has all hands on deck.
Also, the 76ers were 5th in both 3-pointers allowed per game and defensive 3-point percentage during the regular season. Last season, the Bucks were 19th in defensive 3-point percentage and dead-last in 3s allowed per game.
Essentially, if the Celtics aren’t knocking down 3s, they aren’t winning. Whereas Embiid can dominate the interior, all five of Philly’s starters can hit 3s and the Sixers play better 3-point defense, which makes or breaks NBA games nowadays.
Philadelphia has two of the three best players in the series, Embiid and Harden. The 76ers have more ways they can beat you. And they have a more experienced head coach, Doc Rivers.
BET: 76ers +2.5 (-110), down to pick ’em
- Betting strategy: Obviously, I think Philly wins if I’m willing to bet the Sixers plus the points. But, I’d prefer to bet Philadelphia’s spread and look for a spot in-game bet on Boston for a nice middle.
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