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Madison Square Garden hosts the East Regional final matchup between the 9-seed Florida Atlantic Owls and 3-seed Kansas State Wildcats. Tip-off is 6:09 p.m. ET on TBS.
Florida Atlantic upset 5-seed Tennessee 62-55 Thursday in the Sweet 16. The Owls beat 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson in the Round of 32 after squeaking past 8-seed Memphis 66-65 in the 1st round.
Kansas State overpowered 7-seed Michigan State 98-93 en route to the Elite Eight. The Wildcats mauled 14-seed Montana State 77-65 in the opening round and beat 6-seed Kentucky 75-69 afterward.
Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State Odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
This is going to contradict something I said earlier this week but I’m going to side with the college basketball stat nerds over the betting market.
According to Ken Pom and Erik Haslam, Florida Atlantic has a better net efficiency and the “wrong team is favored.” The sportsbooks are siding with the college hoops gurus as well.
Haslam says that the Owls have more momentum and rank 121st in away-from-home efficiency while the Wildcats are 345th in away-from-home efficiency.
KSU opened as -2.5 favorites and roughly 85% of the action at DraftKings is on the Wildcats as of Saturday morning, per VSIN.
Isn’t it suspicious that the spread is moving toward Florida Atlantic?
The public is all over Kansas State because it just beat two of the most popular college basketball programs in the country (Michigan State and Kentucky).
Wildcats PG Markquis Norwell played a game for the ages vs. the Spartans in the Sweet 16. Norwell scored 20 points, threw 19 assists with just two turnovers and five steals. He sealed the victory with an incredible alley-oop in the final minute.
But, Florida Atlantic has a much better defensive shot profile. Both teams like to get out in transition. The Owls are 20th in defensive effective field goal shooting (eFG%) and the Wildcats are 220th, per Hoop-Math.com.
They have the lone strength-on-weakness edge in this matchup and Florida Atlantic is much better from 3. The Owls are 95th in offensive rebounding and the Wildcats are 248th defensively, per Ken Pom.
Florida Atlantic is 35th in 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr) and 45th in 3-point percentage. Whereas Kansas State is 175th in 3-point percentage and 229th in 3PAr.
BET: Florida Atlantic +1.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
- Betting strategy: I’m not a “just take the moneyline since it’s only +1.5” type of bettor. If the House is giving out points, I’ll take them. This is March Madness. It wouldn’t be shocking for Florida Atlantic +1.5 to cash with the Owls losing by 1 point.
UCONN WILL DANCE OVER GONZAGA TO THE FINAL FOUR
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3 CommentsLeave a Reply
Geoff, what’s your record so far this weekend. I see that Texas cost you some money.
3-2 in the Sweet 16: Xavier +4.5 ❌, Creighton -10 ✅, Under in 137.5 SDSU-Alabama ✅, Florida ATL +5.5 ✅, Arkansas +3.5 ❌
Good job overall! Thanks for the reply.